Simple Linear Regression Model

This article considers the relationship between two variables in two ways: (1) by using regression analysis and (2) by computing the correlation coefficient. By using the regression model, we can evaluate the magnitude of change in one variable due to a certain change in another variable. For example, an economist can estimate the amount of change in food expenditure due to a certain change in the income of a household by using the regression model.A sociologist may want to estimate the increase in the crime rate due to a particular increase in the unemployment rate. Besides answering these questions, a regression model also helps predict the value of one variable for a given value of another variable. For example, by using the regression line, we can predict the (approximate) food expenditure of a household with a given income. The correlation coefficient, on the other hand, simply tells us how strongly two variables are related.It does not provide any information about the size of the change in one variable as a result of a certain change in the other variable. Let us return to the example of an economist investigating the relationship between food expenditure and income. What factors or variables does a household consider when deciding how much money it should spend on food every week or every month? Certainly, income of the household is one factor. However, many other variables also affect food expenditure.For instance, the assets owned by the household, the size of the household, the preferences and tastes of household members, and any special dietary needs of household members are some of the variables that influence a household’s decision about food expenditure. These variables are called independent or explanatory variables because they all vary independently, and they explain the variation in food expenditures among different households. In other words, these variables explain why different households spend different amounts of money on food.Foo d expenditure is called the dependent variable because it depends on the independent variables. Studying the effect of two or more independent variables on a dependent variable using regression analysis is called multiple regressions. However, if we choose only one (usually the most important) independent variable and study the effect of that single variable on a dependent variable, it is called a simple regression. Thus, a simple regression includes only two variables: one independent and one dependent. Note that whether it is a simple or a multiple regression analysis, it always includes one and only one dependent variable.It is the number of independent variables that changes in simple and multiple regressions. The relationship between 2 variables in a regression analysis is expressed by a mathematical equation called a regression equation or model. A regression equation, when plotted, may assume one of many possible shapes, including a straight line. A regression equation that g ives a straight-line relationship between two variables is called a linear regression model; otherwise, the model is called a nonlinear regression model. Simple Linear Regression Model This article considers the relationship between two variables in two ways: (1) by using regression analysis and (2) by computing the correlation coefficient. By using the regression model, we can evaluate the magnitude of change in one variable due to a certain change in another variable. For example, an economist can estimate the amount of change in food expenditure due to a certain change in the income of a household by using the regression model.A sociologist may want to estimate the increase in the crime rate due to a particular increase in the unemployment rate. Besides answering these questions, a regression model also helps predict the value of one variable for a given value of another variable. For example, by using the regression line, we can predict the (approximate) food expenditure of a household with a given income. The correlation coefficient, on the other hand, simply tells us how strongly two variables are related.It does not provide any information about the size of the change in one variable as a result of a certain change in the other variable. Let us return to the example of an economist investigating the relationship between food expenditure and income. What factors or variables does a household consider when deciding how much money it should spend on food every week or every month? Certainly, income of the household is one factor. However, many other variables also affect food expenditure.For instance, the assets owned by the household, the size of the household, the preferences and tastes of household members, and any special dietary needs of household members are some of the variables that influence a household’s decision about food expenditure. These variables are called independent or explanatory variables because they all vary independently, and they explain the variation in food expenditures among different households. In other words, these variables explain why different households spend different amounts of money on food.Foo d expenditure is called the dependent variable because it depends on the independent variables. Studying the effect of two or more independent variables on a dependent variable using regression analysis is called multiple regressions. However, if we choose only one (usually the most important) independent variable and study the effect of that single variable on a dependent variable, it is called a simple regression. Thus, a simple regression includes only two variables: one independent and one dependent. Note that whether it is a simple or a multiple regression analysis, it always includes one and only one dependent variable.It is the number of independent variables that changes in simple and multiple regressions. The relationship between 2 variables in a regression analysis is expressed by a mathematical equation called a regression equation or model. A regression equation, when plotted, may assume one of many possible shapes, including a straight line. A regression equation that g ives a straight-line relationship between two variables is called a linear regression model; otherwise, the model is called a nonlinear regression model.

India’s Population Boon or Bane Essay

Is India’s population boon or bane This is such a topic that has left everyone with a big question mark and indeed a debatable question with India holding over one billion people, i. e. , more than a sixth of the world’s population. The reason why people are perplexed to this question is because the population can be a boon as well as a bane, it depends how one takes it, in which context. Before moving on to the answer and concepts which will determine whether a population of about 1. 8 billion is a boon or a bane, we must look at some stats and figures: it has been projected that India will be the most populous country of the world by 2025. By 2050, there will be around 9. 1 billion human beings on our planet, up from 6. 5 billion today of which 1. 6 billion will reside in India. A country’s power lies in the hand of citizens and India’s growing population can mark India’s rising power. Technology, innovation, entrepreneurial skills, savvy India’s got in tonnes but these skills itself is not going to take us to the front ranks of the world. The front ranks of the world will happen when billion plus population is empowered. China and India are the two fastest economies of the world and no one is to deny the fact that China is so far ahead right now that India’s momentum could easily get snuffed out. Looking at the history and forecasts made for India’s demography, one can say that India’s demography put her on the driver’s seat. Looking at the current scenario, half of the country’s population is younger than twenty-five. By 2020 the average age of the Indians will be 29 years compared to 37 years for China and 48 years for Japan. This makes quite clear that in coming years, the efficiency of working age group in India will be more than any other country and productivity will increase with time. By 2050, China could have 90 million people in the eighty-five year plus group but India would still be a young country. (Bahl, Superpower? 2010) However, if India fixes its urban operating model, it has the potential to reap a demographic dividend from the increase—of around 250 million expected in the next decade—in the working-age population. By 2025, nearly 28 percent of China’s inhabitants will be aged 55 or older, compared with only 16 percent in India, whose demographic profile is much more youthful. If India optimizes the productivity of its cities and maximizes their GDP, the economy could add more than 170 million urban workers to its labour force from 2005 to 2025, compared with 50 million in China over the same period. (Sankhe 2010) Population has two sides, just like the sides of a coin in a same way India’s population is boon as well as bane. This population of 1. 18 billion which is considered as so-called boon for the country is also the reason behind its stagnant growth in Human Development Index. HDI is not just the measure of the overall social growth of an economy but it is also a replica for the State to take certain economic measures to curb poverty, unemployment rate and form policies which leads to an increase in literacy rate, a balanced sex ratio and better education & health facilities in the country. Today, India is ranked 119 as per the latest UNDP report, even though it is second fastest growing economies of the world and the only reason which could be mentioned for this stagnant growth is population, because this never ending increase in population leads to high poverty rate, unemployment rate and poor literacy rate. According to estimation in 2007, poverty rate is 25% while unemployment rate stood at 10. 7%. (https://www. cia. gov/index. tml 2010) Not only had this, per capita income is estimated to be $3,100 for the year 2009, though it has increased over the last two years since 2007 but no one can deny the fact that poor has become poorer and affluent has gone wealthier with time. The increase in per capita income, in case of India, not suggests reducing social disparity but indicates an increase in the number of millionaires and billionaires in the nation. Population has become a reason for the increase in poverty as well s unemployment which for some time hinders the country’s development but slowly and slowly this very own population becomes the reason for our country’s success. More the number of people more will be the contribution in our country’s success. But what is important, high ranking in HDI or the social benefits for the lower strata of the society? The answer will be different by two different people; the one who believes in overall social development of the economy will definitely go for the latter. Government has the responsibility to cater to the needs of the general public in the society. But when it comes to population of over 1. 8 billion, it’s not that an easy job. What can government do to stop this increase in population? Apart from awareness amongst the masses, nothing, being a democratic nation it can’t impose ‘one chid norm. ’ At the same time, this population contributes to the manpower, entrepreneurial skills, capital, etc. Therefore everybody is in jeopardy, whether they should favour an increase in population or take some serious measures to prevent this increase in population. Hence, there is no end to this debate and there will be altogether different set of arguments from different individuals, religions, castes and communities. Bibliography https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/in.html

Marketing Management and Market Orientation Essay

People are exposed to marketing in almost everything and they can see the results of marketing in the advertisements on television, internet, and so on and in the abundance of many products. So marketing can be define as an area that has been evolved over time and its process is a set of activities that includes understand, deliver, create and communicate about a product or service to customers, clients. According to The Chartered Institute of Marketing marketing is â€Å"The management process responsible for identifying, anticipating and satisfying customer requirements profitably† (The Chartered Institute of Marketing). Among the management functions like organizing, financing and producing, marketing is recognized as a vital function by many companies. In the opinion of Prf. Rustom S. Davar Marketing Management is the discovering of the consumers’ needs, converting them into the products or service to the ultimate consumer, so that needs of specific categories or gr oups of the customers could be so satisfied that by the most favorable utilization of the resources, the could derive the maximum benefits (Mundra, 2010). Physical and psychological factors are the main focus in the Marketing Management, also motivate, coordinate, control and direct are one of the principal resposibility to achieve marketing management goals. ï  ¶Define the Market Orientation Naver and Slater (1990) define Market Orientation as â€Å"the culture† that most effectively and efficiently creates the necessary behaviours for the creation of superior value for buyers. They measure the extent of market orientation through the behaviours that are the manifestations of those values. These authors define three basic components as: customer orientation, competition orientation and inter-functional coordination (Naver, 1995). Market Orientation is the business motivation within a company, because it is focus on identify and provide the needs and wants of a target customer, this includes develop new products or improve on exist products. The purpose of marketing orientation is to create superior buyer value that is the reason why all the decisions are based on information about the customers needs or wants instead of think what is good for the business. ï  ¶Reflect on the Market Orientation and Management of an organisation you are aware of. Louis Vuitton has established in the market place with its own identity â€Å"LV† a brand recognized as one of the most luxurious and more exclusive brand in the fashion industry. Its marketing strategy is to provide their customers with the most luxurious products with a unique quality, which may the customers, choose between buying a Louis Vuitton or nothing. The way that LVMH (Louis Vuitton – Moà «t Hennessy) Group manages its market orientation and management makes the company enjoys a distinctive position in the competitive landscape. Louis Vuitton products are set by 18 principles such as Principle of Ostentation, Principle of Prohibiting Unfavorable Comparisons Designed to Support Other Brands, etcetera (Nagasawa, 2008). As well, has no policy of make rebate in their products in order to keep a higher perception of its products. All its products have a purpose and it is t o make the customers feel part of a social reference group, a social status that is why many of its models campaign are famous celebrities in order to make customers feel part of that group. To keep the luxury and exclusivity of the brand they work with famous designers such as Marc Jacobs, Stephen Sprouse, to create limited editions that are offered to the upper class. Some of this collaboration has completely forgotten the famous pattern LV that was the case of Kasuma a Japanese designer who is famous for its repetitive dots. Louis Vuitton creates a high loyalty with their customers by offering products with the maximum quality creating an endless desire in LV products. Also providing lifetime guarantee for its products. LV keep working with the technology by continuous work on improvement of quality also create a mobile apps so their customer can enjoy the experience by distance. They don’t have limit on how much they would invest in pleasing their customers from adequate their stores to please their customer to designs everything to keep customers and getting more.

Tennessees Political, Economic, and Social Development Essay

Tennessees Political, Economic, and Social Development - Essay Example It is this program that replaced Medicaid coverage for about 1.5 million uninsured Tennessees. In 2002, Phil Bredesen was elected as the governor. He is the one who spearheaded economic growth. In 1992, the Tennessee legislature approved school reform laws. It is in 1993 that the state allowed a healthcare package that paved way for the creation of TennCare. It is this program that replaced Medicaid coverage for about 1.5 million uninsured Tennessees. In 2002, Phil Bredesen was elected as the governor. He is the one who spearheaded economic growth in Tennessee. The conviction of Jacob Butcher and Ray Blanton in 1982 for conspiracy and fraud enhanced economic development. Manufacturing industries continued to expand throughout the 1980s.Rebirth of Republic Party in 1970s b.  Conviction of Jacob Butcher and Ray Blanton in 1982 c.  Expansion of manufacturing industries in 1980s d.  Creation of employment opportunities in 1982 and 1990s e.  Approval of school reform laws in 1992

Causes and Effects of Air Pollution Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Causes and Effects of Air Pollution - Essay Example This paper illustrates that natural pollutants include volcanic eruptions, forest fires, wind erosion, natural radioactivity, and organic compounds evaporation, dispersal of pollen and wind erosion. Although these natural events have proved to cause a measure of air pollution, their frequency is very low. The main sources of air pollution are human activities. Industries are among the leading sources of air pollutants of numerous gases such as carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide. Other pollutants from industries are organic compounds, especially from petroleum refineries. The burning of fossil fuels in different locomotives is an additional cause of air pollutants with the increasing reliance on vehicles, trains, and motorcycles. These pollutants include gases such as carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons, and particulates. Household and farming chemicals form the third source of air pollutants. These pollutants emanate from activities such as fumigating ho mes, dusting crops, and pesticide spraying. Air pollution has multiple detrimental effects on the environment and humans. Gases such as sulfur dioxide and oxides of nitrogen usually mix with rainwater forming the acid that destroys vegetation and pollutes water. Moreover, some pollutants find their way into the soil through rain and cause eutrophication. Other pollutants have led to the formation of ground-level ozone that has affected people’s health adversely. Air pollution also involves particulate matter such as lead and presents multiple effects. Such particulate matter may cause respiratory disorders and long-term effects such as cancer, heart disease, and kidney disorders.

Any thing realated to linguistics and teaching English as a foreign Essay

Any thing realated to linguistics and teaching English as a foreign language - Essay Example Littlewood (1983) noted "Learning refers to conscious process of internalizing a second language. Learning to use a second language freely is a lengthy and complex process. Different people have different criteria for learning language, few stress on accuracy (grammar, vocabulary, listening, written production etc.) while others on fluency (reading, phonology, spoken production, accent, etc.) but almost everyone agree that our primary purpose of language development is to be able to speak in the target language. However, in recent years the stress is on how to teach languages, which is increasingly guided by the dominant aim of promoting the learner's communicative competence. Similarly, all the recent definitions of language learning also involve communicative point of view by one way or another. "Language learning is a neutral response to communicative needs," says Littlewood (1983). The approach that needs to be taken according to is not all about sentence structure and vocabulary but "it must also involve an understanding of how people use these linguistic forms in order to communicate." suggested Woodhead; Miller; Oshea (1981). Bourges (1964) also claims that "some basic awareness of the total linguistic process" is very essential," otherwise students can never be competent to use the second language. There fore, the learners must be aware of the value of their learning and how will matter in all spheres of his life outside the classroom, in which it has to be written and spoken. English for what English is an international language. However, for most of the third world countries, it has a position of second language. At present, English is fast gaining grounds in Non-Western countries; most of them fall in 'developing' countries category. English is no longer a language of West but it has become a language of the person who uses it. Second language learning (English) has become a necessity to most of us, for some the reason is instrumental for others it is personal. Most of us, in this situation learn second language for instrumental purpose. Recently, it has been realized that most of the students will need second language for knowledge, societal, career, or entertainment's sake. River (1983) noted that "consumers are not only students, but also the society of which they are a part." Therefore, second language is one institution that learners must master in order to perform proficiently in other subject areas as well as in society. The main component, which makes English primary for learners, is that knowing a second language will more or less give surety of a better economic status. As job markets have become increasingly competitive now and it's not enough to know one language, since all the official work is done in English. For a perspective employee, English is a need and an added advantage to progress quickly by accessing any related knowledge through different channels. As River (1984) says "people's personal attitude towards the second language matters a great deal, as also a degree and nature of socio-economic demands for it." Spoken language is also required to keep the up social relationships. Colleges and schools have a role to perform since they introduce them to a wider

Critical Thinking Question Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Critical Thinking Question - Essay Example The modern societies particularly lay stress upon regular medical check-ups and professional medical counselling for the masses; however, the families sometimes develop their personal health goals, in the light of the experiences of senior family members, as well as according to the counselling they have obtained from the medical advisors in past. However, the most important step towards determination of family health goals is hiring the services of a qualified professional nurse, which can provide a comprehensive fitness scheme for the adequate healthcare of the family. Thus, acting upon the wise counselling and professional schemes of the nurses serves as the best way to maintain health and fitness of the entire family. Since nurses are the qualified medical attendants, their prudent guidance regarding diet and exercise, keep the family away from illness. Nursing is a highly significant profession, and the nurses pay their duties in a systematic manner to resolve the issues related to healthcare. They put aside their own comforts and forget about their individual needs for the cause of others; it is therefore family healthcare is a far cry without seeking help from the nurses. â€Å"Nursing is a demanding profession that requires dedication. Nursing is not a 9 to 5 job because sometimes, you may be assigned to work the graveyard shift or extend beyond 8 hours of work especially when there are a lot of patients to attend to.† (Quoted in lifeinfozone.com) Hence, role of the nurses is vital in keeping the society in proper working. Consequently, almost all American and European families have obtained their services for children, adults and elderly alike. â€Å"The purpose and the reason for the nurse’s contact with the family guides the initial information collected about pertinent areas of family functioning. Initial information shared by the family will help guide the nurse in determining what other data to collect.† (Lundy & Janes, 2009: 752) It is also a reality that some families regard the advices made by the nurses as undue interference in their personal life. They are of the view that since nurses are unaware of the family diseases and inherited illness, they are unable to provide a wise counselling. Hence, instead of curing the individuals, they may make the case more complicated and serious. They act upon the advice of their heart and start taking diet and exercises of their own choice. Not only this that they do not consult medical specialists regarding diet etc, but also they get involved into self medication policy, which serious damages their heart, stomach and kidneys even, turning them frail and flimsy. â€Å"There are many people who are facing a wide variety of stresses, discouragements, disappointments and other events and situations that take an emotional toll on their lives. Sadly, many people feel there isn’t much they can do to help themselves, their loved ones or their business associate s who are having a tough time. Or, they feel that medication is the only answer.† (evancarmichael.com) Hence, they become victim of the drug addiction. Consequently, regular medical check-ups by professionals is inevitable for the maintenance of life. One of the most initial steps taken towards the establishing of personal health goals is applying of regular medical c

Discussing Theodore Roosevelt's views of American Nationalism and Research Paper

Discussing Theodore Roosevelt's views of American Nationalism and Imperialism - Research Paper Example By the nineteenth century, it was almost impossible to interchange the concepts of nationalism and racism. Enlightenment ideals heightened on nationalism and imperialism regardless of the emphasis on the equality and liberty of men as well as the cosmopolitan aspirations. Following the French Revolution, the republican government tries to unify all the French-speaking nations making them a single rule. This led to an aggressive campaign by the military in the Low Nations. Italian liberals on the other hand hoped to have a unified nation that would be under the Italians only and not a jumbled combination of foreign and domestic monarchs. Come the nineteenth century, there was no accord that the different species of mankind shared a common origin and that there worth was not equal. Most nations and leaders believed on the biological superiority of what was referred to as the Caucasian race and this was common with the Germanic peoples who seemed to be justified by the global colonial e mpires rise headed by the European countries. It is in the wake of this situation that this paper looks at the position taken by Theodore Roosevelt on imperialism and nationalism. Theodore Roosevelt’s came to power at a time when most of nations had adopted nationalistic and imperialistic modes as they tried to gain more territories and come up with the best military. This situation strengthened the desire of Theodore Roosevelt to construct the American race so that it becomes one that is full of ambitious, brave and hardworking men. To come up with such a race, Theodore Roosevelt’s remained open to mixing races as he believed that by mixing different races, he will be able to have men who had superior qualities than those men who were pure. Despite this position, Theodore Roosevelt also believed that there were some groups of people who he viewed as better representations of this race. He was in favor of people from the European descent as he excluded the Asians and A frican American considering them as being inferior. Some of his actions and speeches contrasted this position on race. He strongly believed and promised that people from different races were welcome and that they had the same rights as the rest of the American citizens. Early life Experience Theodore Roosevelt came from a tradition that revered the Protestant ethic, the middle class Americans. In his early childhood, he learned the ethic of the Bible and was introduced to social consciousness now that his father happened to be an avid philanthropy practitioner as well as a social worker who believed in putting in action what the Bible preached. His concern with regards to the poor was that the legislative form in pursuing to lessen the distress resulting from a new industrial and urban society. This take is evident in his progressive stance while he was serving as a New York’s Governor as well as the President. This showed that Theodore Roosevelt attitude was reverent and he pursued the highest Christian virtue ideals and opted to implement his own faith in assisting others and helping to come up with a better world. Theodore Roosevelt’s involvement in religion in his early life was that of works. His early Christianity life was behind his means to live a good life and this led to his ruling to emphasize on moral and good life. This remained to be an overriding passion in the faith of Theodore

Federal Court System Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Federal Court System - Essay Example â€Å"Within limits set by Congress and the Constitution, the district courts or trail courts have jurisdiction to hear nearly all categories of federal cases, including both civil and criminal matters†(Federal Court Structure, n. d.). For convenience, America is divided into 94 federal judicial districts and at least one federal judicial district is operating in each state. Bigger states may have more than one federal judicial district whereas the smaller states may have only one federal judicial district. Even though trial courts are normally operating on district-wise, two special trail courts such as The Court of International Trade and The United States Court of Federal Claims, operate nationally. Appellate courts are operating regionally. The 94 judicial districts are arranged in 12 regions and each region consists of an Appellate court. Appellate courts normally hear the unresolved cases in judicial districts under its jurisdiction. Appeals from federal agencies will also be heard in appellate courts. â€Å"In addition, the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has nationwide jurisdiction to hear appeals in specialized cases, such as those involving patent laws and cases decided by the Court of International Trade and the Court of Federal Claims† (Federal Court Structure, n.

Operations Management Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

Operations Management - Essay Example The period from Friday to Monday was commercially feasible, with more or less exactly twice as many sightseers on Saturdays and Sundays than on Fridays or Mondays. People usually start coming before 4:00 pm, as they would like to see the milking and then leave for home. However, neither Fred was not ready to start earlier and neither were the cows. Nonetheless, generally, people are tolerant and every person gets their turn to observe the bit of high technology. The accessibility of the farm also causes a number of problems. The entire competences of the organisation are not within reach of every client. The once weekly deliveries by Gillian as well causes issues as shops and dealers are not capable to function in a ‘just in time’ manner, limiting the selling methods that can be put to use. The problems Gillian faces while making an effort to boost their productivity is huge. A few of which were recognized as, to increase the amount of dairy farm sightseers during the ye ar 2012 by 50 percent from 14800 paying farm sightseers during the year 2011 to 22200 paying farm sightseers during the year 2012.... Together with the small viewing space, lack of ice cream flavour variation as well as the insistent advertising drive of rivals the amount of business generated from every client is lesser as compared to the amount that is required. Key to business expansion is repeatedly raising sales by means of boosting the business generated from every client and increase the concentration of the business on client contact. With the intention of examining as well as suggesting alternative preferences, information on the condition of the market as well as the opposition present must initially be collected. The major crisis is evidently the amount of visitors presently being received by the dairy farm and the way this figure could be improved. â€Å"Sudden changes of previous trend hardly happen excepting entering strong new players into the region, spoiling the farm's reputation hugely and investing tremendously on the marketing for its farm shop. Moreover, in terms of Holly Farm's managing on it s farm visitors, this sudden change of the number of visitors could lead to collapses of its operations. These reasons discussed above clearly show that Gillian's demand forecast is not reliable Hence, they have to forecast in the other way† (Waters, 2002, p. 82). Other then the capacity constraints, the milking parlour has queuing issues. This case indicated that more or less 80 individuals visited the gallery from 4:00 pm to 5:00 pm on a busy day. As a result, a line is made earlier than beginning the milking parlour and is not explained the line for a moment. The queuing issue simply leads to customer discontent and could give rise to severe drop in its entire returns. Abolishment of explanatory audio tape through headphones would be useful. It is understandable that the tape

Approaches to Decision Making Essay Example for Free

Approaches to Decision Making Essay There are two common ways to make decisions regarding changes in an organization, especially when others are involved in the end result. The two ways would be to make decisions individually, making the decision by yourself or by creating a committee, getting others involved in the process. Knowing that something needs to change, means that there has been a problem identified, evaluating alternatives and then selecting the solution. Depending on the problem and the criteria that will be evaluated in making the final decision, this will play an important factor on whether individually making the decision is better than a group decision. When making decisions and changes that are going to effect many, it typically is better to make group decisions. For larger companies, it is typical that a committee or a team would be created. Bringing together individuals of the organization that would be effected by these changes. Having a committee involved in the decision brings more views, thoughts, past experiences and suggestions to the table to be evaluated for optimal solutions. Advantages of a group decision is there are more options contributed, the better chances that decisions made would be accepted by those involved in the decision as well. â€Å"Quantities and diversity of information are greatest when group members represent different specialities†. (Robbins, DeCenzo, Coulter, 2011, p. 71). Finding a suitable solution is half of the battle, the next half would be implementation. By having a group decision enforced, will increase the success of changes since they were a part of it and will encourage change. In the example provided about budgetary concerns, it would be suggested that a committee be created with upper management from finance, human resources, and department managers to discuss how overhead such as employees, supplies and other capital costs are effecting our business. Before having the initial meeting it would be suggested for each manager to evaluate their department and be ready to give suggestion of where they would be able to make individual changes without sacrificing the well being of the patients care. Once all contributions are made from each department, hearing the options of solutions would allow the committee members to discuss the  changes and place value on which options could be most beneficial. Options like reducing employee head count or hours, re-evaluating vendors where supplies are purchased from, eliminating overtime costs by having back up staff available or changing processes by reducing paper trails and going electronic. Each of these will need to be analyzed on immediate consequences or benefits and what the longer term effects will be. The disadvantage of working with a committee is that there will prolong the process of making a decision, more meetings, more time and there could be more resistant from individuals that will need to be â€Å"talked into† this decision. In the example about making budget cuts, one could make the decision alone and not consult with any other departments. The individual making decisions to cut staff, supplies or capital costs would need to have a comprehensive understanding of all costs associated with the organization and what implications could be by reducing budgets. Even though it is just one person making the decision, it is very important to still do a thorough evaluation of what the problems are, evaluate multiple solutions and weigh the benefits or consequences of these changes. It would be very important to obtaining financial monthly statements/costs that are associated with each department. The benefit of making decisions solely is that multiple meetings would be eliminated, do not need to â€Å"sell† your idea or solution to others, and a decision could be made quicker which will save time and money for the organization. The disadvantages of making a decision like this where it effects a group, out weigh the benefits. You do not have access to others input and past experiences who have dealt with similar situations or hearing what concerns your management will have. By not including others, you have a higher chance of the decision not being welcomed by all and having resistant to the change and implementation. References: Robbins, S., DeCenzo, D., Coulter, M. (2011). Fundamentals of Management: Essential Concepts and Applications (7th ed.).

Personal Writing - Learning to understand Essay Example for Free

Personal Writing Learning to understand Essay As usual George stopped at the local sweet shop on his way to school. It was the same old woman at the counter: Mrs. Meridew. She never smiled or thanked anyone. Gorge was not really bothered by this since he only went to the shop to buy sweets. 50p of Cola Bottles and 20p of the Suga Snakes. George always ordered the same thing so the old woman had started packing his sweets before he had finished telling her his order. As he headed out of the door, with the sweets safely in his pocket, he saw his older brother, David, walking to school with a girl he had never seen before. She was short, about five feet tall, with auburn hair. She was walking behind David and she occasionally ran ahead to say something and then returned to her position, behind him. He watched them both turn onto the school road and then made his way to the school as well. He got to the school gates just in time to see them both entering through the main entrance and going to their separate classrooms. He didnt see either of them for the whole day. George got home at around 4 oclock and called for his brother who appeared not to be home. His parents were at work so it was just him and Ginger, his old and fragile cat. He got changed and made himself something to eat when he heard the front door open and the voice of his brother calling for him. David was not looking his normal self. His face was seemed as though he was hypnotized and his eyes were full of exhaustion. He dropped his bag and without another word, he made his way upstairs, supposedly to his room. After about half an hour, George decided to check on how his brother was. He quickly climbed up the stairs and walked into Davids room without knocking. David was at his desk and as soon as he saw George standing in the doorway, he rushed to clear everything, from his desk, out of site. Why didnt you knock? David screeched. Why does it matter? It only could if you had been doing something, eh? George was getting cheeky. There was just a look of plain rage on Davids face. George thought it would be the best thing to leave the room, so he did, and went downstairs. He knew now that there was something suspicious going on between David and the girl he had seen walking with him. He just needed to read those letters to find out what was going on. He shouldnt really interfere with his brothers life, should he? Suspiciousness got the better of George and the following morning, he was going to try hard to get his brother out of the house, but David left much earlier than normal without George even trying. This was his perfect chance to read those notes David had been writing yesterday evening. He hurried up the stairs and scampered along the landing to Davids room. He had to open the door quietly since his mum was still asleep in the room next door. David had evidently cleaned up his room before leaving; the bed had been made and all his belongings were in position. George went straight for Davids desk and started to empty its contents onto the floor. The pile he was making was getting bigger, but there was no sign of any sort of abnormal letters or pieces of writing. Could he have known that George was going to rummage through his room? George started to replace everything back into Davids desk as it was before his careless search. Just then, there was the sound of the front door being swung open very loudly. He knew at once what had happened. David had realized that he had left George at home and now had rushed back to make sure he didnt go through his room. GEORGE! WHERE THE HELL ARE YOU! David was screaming at the top of his voice. George could hear him running around looking for him downstairs as he was stuffing all of the bits of paper and books into Davids desk. George heard him running up the stairs and his speed of clearing up the mass got faster, but not quite fast enough as David burst in the room. His hair was in a state and his face was burning with fury. He was very wheezy and was spitting at odd moments. George felt nothing, but the greatest fear, as his brother looked as though he would murder him, there and then

Sociological and Biological Constructs of Health

Sociological and Biological Constructs of Health CONTENTS Introduction1 Section 1 Definition of health and illness-2 Evaluate Sociological and biological constructs of health3 Section 2 Structural patterns in inequality in modern Britain-4 Evaluation of unequal distribution of illness5 Section 3 Factors that reduce the freedom of health care -6 Structures of healthcare service that might affect individuals7 Section 4 Conclusion8 Section 5 Reference-9 Introduction This report aims to understand and analyse the different definitions of health and illness in different perspectives, evaluate them and identify structural patterns in inequality in Modern Britain. It also evaluates unequal distribution of illness from different perspectives among different groups. It identifies problems that might occur in accessing health care among different groups in modern Britain. Finally it evaluates changes in healthcare services and the structures, and how this might affect different groups in the society. DIFINING HEALTH AND ILLNESS The speech â€Å"Beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder,† can be used to define my own version of health and illness as to what our views are about health and illness. For example I view health as been strong and healthy enough to carry out my daily chores, on the contrary inability to achieve it will be blamed on my physical health. So how do people view health and illness? World health organisation (1946) defines health as the mental and physical wellbeing. On the other hand illness will be the defined as lack of mental and physical wellbeing. The biopsychosocial model view health and illness as the interaction between biomedical, social and psychological factors. Biomedical refers to genetic factors such as inherited conditions and physiological changes of individuals, psychologically how we manifest our feelings and thought and socially how we socialise and communicate with persons and group of persons in the society as a whole. The interaction with all of these factors, coupled with cultural differences among different groups of people in Britain will influence the way we view health and illnesses. Holistic model view health and illness by taking into account the whole person, which includes the person’s body, spirit and mind. This mode is much more individualised to the person involved and rarely take into account wider picture and the social and environmental factors that might possibly influence health and illness across various cultures. Biomedical models defines health and illness by using scientific measure to determine if a person is ill or not, as they believe that illness is caused by physical factors, such as physiological changes in the body and inherited genes, in case of mental health causes might be referred to neurotransmitters defect, biochemistry which might be linked to high increase of dopamine to the frontal cortex of the brain and so on. As such blood test, analysis and series of test are carried out to identify the causes and this may enable them to classify the illness and provide appropriate treatment through the use of drugs to control or cure the condition. Biomedical model view human body as a machine, in real sense machines do develop a mechanical fault and will require fixing up. This is how biomedical model view the body, at a point it might break down and require fixing up through surgery or drugs. Sociological model believes that health and illness are caused by factors outside of the physiological changes in the body. This model attributes causes of ill health to poverty and inequality, socio standard of behaviour and communication in the society. Sociological model view health to be socially constructed in the society to control people. They also believe that different factors such as psychological, political, social, economic, biological, and culture and environment influenced the way people view health in the society. Health is not an easy term to define. For some it encompasses mental health, for others physical and mental health are compartmentalized. A perception of health or mental health is not only defined within the medical context, but it is also defined by the patient within a sociocultural context that includes family and social network as well as a wide selection of potential providers. Such definitions may vary from one culture to another, Warwick-Boot (2012). Biomedical models does have some advantages as it enable the medical team to carry out series of medical test to find out any physiological changes. However, scientifically, there has been no expansion of drug innovation, old drugs have been manufactured under different names doing the same thing as previous drugs. This raise concern if these drug manufacturers are neutral to the medical teams. Areas with major health concerns and needs are been neglected and drugs budget have been dramatically reduced due to the poverty conditions of these groups for the fact that they might not make a lot of profit, this refers to the medical professionals as iatrogenesis meaning they are the cause of health problems. The benefit of Sociological model is that it takes into account the factors outside of the physiological changes in the body such as psychological, political, social, economic, biological, culture and environment when viewing health and illness. The down side to it is that way cultures and different groups view health and illness changes over time. For example once homosexuality was viewed as illness and now it is normal in a society. Section 2 Ethnicity According to M. Senior, B Viveash (1998) refers to ethnicity as a way of life, behaviour that one acts on to make a sense of their cultural identity in a particular group in the society as a whole. Movement in and out of Britain have made Britain into more diversified cultural society today, to those who preserved it. Though several ethnic minorities are small, but in some cases there are larger ones in some demographic region like Brent in London. This makes it more obvious for a particular health need to be cared for in an area where ethnic groups are concentrated in. The biological model often refers to the features which makes up the physical look of a person such as their skin colour to classify them into a group. Why the sociologists distinguishes people according to their ethnic groups. The artefact explanations strongly believe that there are specific health and illnesses associated within different ethnic groups. The sociologists have great concern in understanding why some certain health and illnesses are associated with different ethnic groups. Such as Afro-Caribbean linked with high rate of sickle cell anaemia an inherited blood disorder, why the White European have a high rate of haemophilia a disorder that prevents the clotting of blood and might cause someone to bleed to death if quick medical emergency intervention is not carried out on time. Also Asians are associated with high rate of heart diseases and so forth. It is important to examine the way ethnic groups have distributed themselves in the demographic regions of Britain to enable us to account for their numbers in a particular area, whether they are minor or large such as ethnic group in Brent in London, understand some health related issues associated with these specific groups and outline the health care needs of the majority of the local people in the society. Health inequalities exist among different groups. In this case among ethnic groups. Ethnicity and Culture According to Public Health Action Support (2011) there is evidence of documentation within ethnic inequalities in health outcomes in the UK. There are difficulties with the approach and measurement of ethnicity as to what the causes might be as outlined below. Ethnicity is regarded as a fluid concept, because it entails different meanings within different contexts. For example, an individual from Pakistan might consider himself as a Pakistani when filling out a form in the UK surveys, when filling out a form in the US might consider himself Asian. The definition of ethnicity is influenced by historical value and the current social and political context (Bradby, 2003). As definitions of ethnicity changes classifications such as race, skin colour, language, religion, nationality, country of origin, and culture do not change. These have limitations and implications in accessing health. Often reason for research are not clearly stated. Bhopal (1997) claims that ethnicity is a euphemism for race. Review of the literature, Comstock and colleagues (2004) found that researchers failed to differentiate between the concepts of race and ethnicity. Reliability and validity of measurements of ethnicity are huge concern to the society as a whole. Assigned ethnic identities may not match individual identities which threatens the validity of the research. Comparisons over time cannot reflect mixed ethnic identities. Finally classifying people as black, white, or Asian may mask differences associated between different groups of people. Ellison (2005). For the fact Ethnicity is not written on UK death certificates, and mortality data uses country of birth as a proxy, this systems fail to recognise ethnic minorities that are born in the UK. Findings on ethnic inequalities in mortality (Kelly Nazroo, 2008): Caribbean’s born in the UK have high rates of mortality from stroke. Men born in the Caribbean have low rates of mortality from coronary heart disease. Born in West/South Africa you may have high mortality rates from stroke, but low mortality rates from coronary heart disease. If born in South Asia you may have high mortality rates form coronary heart disease and stroke. Non-white individuals may have low mortality rates from respiratory disease and lung cancer, but high mortality rates of diabetes. Table 1: Analyses the rates of mortality by country of origin, England and Wales, 1989-1992. Source: Wild and McKeigue (1997:705) in Bartly (2004) Explanations for ethnic inequalities in health include: Biased results of statistical artefact. Illness are blamed on migrationprocess (change of environment). Genetic and biological differencesbetween ethnic groups may be a factor. It is associated with different culture and health behaviours. Poverty Experiences of various forms of racial abuse leads to health problems. Unequal treatment by the health care system in Britain. Ethnic inequalities in health care access still persist in NHS. The inverse care law, first described by Julian Tudor Hart in 1971, states: The availability of good medical care tends to vary inversely with the need for it in the population served. Goddard and Smith (2001) outline reasons for variations in access to health care: Availability:Some health care services may not be available to some population groups, or clinicians may have different propensities to offer treatment to patients from different population groups, even where they have identical needs. Quality: The quality of services offered to patients may vary between population groups. Costs:The health care services may impose costs (financial or otherwise) which vary between population groups. Information:The health care organisations may fail to ensure that all population groups are equally aware of the services available. The sociological perspectives to illness varies. The functionalism expects a large population to have division of labour as no one is self -sufficient to ensure that the society functions in an orderly manner. They also encourage people to seek and comply with medical advice for speedy recovery so as to return back to work. They understands people have to work, and people do not claim to be ill deliberately and as such should not be punished. This perspective do aim to protect workers from been abused or punished by their employer due to ill health, however they do overstate the importance of the doctors who have the power to make or break a patient which leads to lots of medical errors referred to as iatrogenesis. There could also be dependency on drugs to force people back to work. Marxism examine the economic systems of the capitalist society that shapes the society as a whole. As such the society is divided into two social groups which are the bourgeoisie and the proletariat. Bourgeoisie the private property owners and those that owns the means of production and create bogus profit are believed to have greater influences in the rules of the society. Why the proletariat (labourers), those who work for the bourgeoisie are been manipulated to believe that they are in a fair system. Marxism ideology encourages us to question the motives of the doctors as they intend to serve the rich people of the society. Due to the need to access healthcare and it is made available to the proletariat they have been made to believe that illness is a personal issue rather than socially constructed. Marxism does not acknowledge the the interaction between doctors patient and also they ignore the sickness and employment benefit offered by the capitalist states. Feminism views thinks men dominate the medical professions and make decisions about a woman’s body which affects women. They also feel that lack of understanding of a natural process of childbirth have been labelled to be a medical condition. Exhaustion from a new role as a mum, have also been labelled as depression. They also think why are women contraception over emphasized? And men left out. This explains the inequality and the patriarchy world we are in today. The interactionist views are that individuals attaches meaning to their own behaviour as well as others they also feel illness differ from person one person to person, even when they are diagnosed with the same condition. They are not always in compliance with the medical team that is why a dialogue is needed for mutual agreement between the doctor and the patient. Sometimes the doctors do not come to terms with a patient if they complain of a particular illness, and sometimes doctors label people with illness which affect the psyche of people’s mind and then making them psychosomatic by acting out those symptoms. If we look at post natal depression as an illness diagnosed by a medical team from all of this prospective we can see that the functionist view conforms to this by giving the medical team the power to label this individual, which results to administration of drugs that eventually will become tranquillizers which leads to dependency with much more side effects. From the Marxism point of view people will be brainwashed to accept the fact that they are suffering from this illness due to their personal physiological changes rather than socially constructed issues of the society as a whole. The feminist does not see post natal depression as an illness, rather they feel it is a natural process for a woman to become sore after the birth of a baby as they may have had episiotomy, sore breast, sleepless nights for caring for a new born, instead of labelling it and interrupting a natural process by medication, they feel the patriarchy medical team should understand things better from a womanâ €™s point of view. Finally post natal depression may be viewed as labelling an individual which into may utter their psyche and may begin to manifest the symptoms, they feel labelling someone may actually make them worse off. Can you think of human behaviours or conditions that have recently been mediatised? Think about what makes a person disabled? Write down some physical symptoms and then discuss how these can be ‘enabled’ in our society Section 3 Definitions of Health, Illness and Sickness http://nccc.georgetown.edu/body_mind_spirit/definitions_health_sickness.html __________________________________________ Warwick ____________________________________________________ Michael Senior with Bruce V Health Knowledge Inequalities in the distribution of health and health care http://www.healthknowledge.org.uk/public-health-textbook/medical-sociology-policy-economics/4c-equality-equity-policy/inequalities-distribution. Public Health Action Support 2011

The Legacy Of Jackie Robinson Essay example -- Sports Baseball

The legacy of Jackie Robinson goes beyond the April 15, 1947 afternoon at Ebbets Field, when the Brooklyn Dodger infielder became the first black in the 20th century to play baseball in the major leagues. He changed the sport, and he changed the attitude of a lot of people in this country, Jackie Robinson fought for all the people that were fortunate, a lot of them are, especially the minority guys, to be able to play in the major leagues and the impact on the people of color today. Robinson was an undeniably great player who had some of his best years stolen from him. He was a speedster who led his team to six World Series, won Rookie of the Year honors, an MVP award and was a six-time All-Star. But it’s not because of his marvelous career that Jackie’s number 42 is retired in every major league ballpark. It’s because on a chilly afternoon in 1947 at Ebbets Field, Robinson took the diamond for the Dodgers to become the first black man to play in a major league baseball game in the modern era. His stellar play and moreover, his poise under fire paved the way for baseball integration, as barriers broke down in baseball, they also started to crumble in society at large. While Jackie is best remembered for integrating major league baseball, an incident that occurred before his fame as a Dodger heralded his future as a warrior in the battle for civil rights. America entered World War II, as in most of America at the time; blacks suffered the indignation of segregation. Jim...

Changes Resulting from The Renaissance :: European Renaissance Essays

The Renaissance The Renaissance was a period of European history, considered by modern scholars as that between 1300 and 1600. Many dramatic changes happened during the Renaissance. The Renaissance was a period of new inventions and beliefs. The Renaissance was drastically different from the Middle Ages. During the Middle Ages the church held most of the power and its economy were agriculturally based. Exploration and learning was almost put to a stop. During the Renaissance society was transformed into a society increasingly dominated by central political institutions with an urban commercial attitude. Also, people's curiosity overcame their fear and many people started to venture out and explore. New schools and colleges became more and more common. The Renaissance was started by many rich Italian cities, such as Florence, Ferrara, Milan, and Venice. Because these cities were very wealthy, many merchants started to spend money on different things, such as painting, learning, new banking techniques, and new systems of government. These things gave rise to a new type of scholar, the humanist. Humanism was subjects concerned with humankind and culture. They studied various things such as Latin, Greek language, literature and philosophy. Music and mathematics were also studied as well. The Renaissance gave way to new forms of painting, art and sculpture. During the Renaissance, artist were no longer regarded as mere artisans, as they had been to the medieval past, but for the first time emerged as independent personalities, compared to poets and writers. Many artisans merged mathematics with art, in order to become more precise in their measurements and to make sure an object was supported both rationally and proportionally. As a result painters tried and often succeeded into making their painting a window into the world. Artists also studied the way light hits objects and the way our eyes perceive light. A new kind of paint called oil paint was used. This allowed the artist to create texture, mix colors, and allow more time for corrections before it dried. The printing press was probably the most important advance in technology. Europeans first used movable metal type to print a book. On small pieces of metal they engraved single letters of the alphabet. These could then be arranged and rearranged to form words and sentences. Changes Resulting from The Renaissance :: European Renaissance Essays The Renaissance The Renaissance was a period of European history, considered by modern scholars as that between 1300 and 1600. Many dramatic changes happened during the Renaissance. The Renaissance was a period of new inventions and beliefs. The Renaissance was drastically different from the Middle Ages. During the Middle Ages the church held most of the power and its economy were agriculturally based. Exploration and learning was almost put to a stop. During the Renaissance society was transformed into a society increasingly dominated by central political institutions with an urban commercial attitude. Also, people's curiosity overcame their fear and many people started to venture out and explore. New schools and colleges became more and more common. The Renaissance was started by many rich Italian cities, such as Florence, Ferrara, Milan, and Venice. Because these cities were very wealthy, many merchants started to spend money on different things, such as painting, learning, new banking techniques, and new systems of government. These things gave rise to a new type of scholar, the humanist. Humanism was subjects concerned with humankind and culture. They studied various things such as Latin, Greek language, literature and philosophy. Music and mathematics were also studied as well. The Renaissance gave way to new forms of painting, art and sculpture. During the Renaissance, artist were no longer regarded as mere artisans, as they had been to the medieval past, but for the first time emerged as independent personalities, compared to poets and writers. Many artisans merged mathematics with art, in order to become more precise in their measurements and to make sure an object was supported both rationally and proportionally. As a result painters tried and often succeeded into making their painting a window into the world. Artists also studied the way light hits objects and the way our eyes perceive light. A new kind of paint called oil paint was used. This allowed the artist to create texture, mix colors, and allow more time for corrections before it dried. The printing press was probably the most important advance in technology. Europeans first used movable metal type to print a book. On small pieces of metal they engraved single letters of the alphabet. These could then be arranged and rearranged to form words and sentences.

How does creatine affect your body Essay -- essays research papers

How does Creatine affect your body?   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  How does Creatine affect your body? Creatine affects our body in several different ways. Creatine can provide additional energy for your muscles, volumization of your muscles, buffer lactic acid build-up, and enhance protein synthesis. Creatine can also help stimulate growth in muscles and increase the user's strength, even while doing your normal workouts. Creatine can also be taken in a variety of ways.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Creatine can affect your body in a negative way when taken excessively. Normally, one should not take more than 20 grams at a time. Your liver and kidneys may become damaged from taking too much and can also cause you an upset stomach, muscle pains, diarrhea, and dehydration. However, drinking plenty of water can minimize most of those effects. Creatine has been known to provide additional energy for your muscles. Our body has a compound called ATP (adenosine tri-phosphate), which is an energy-containing compound. The ATP reaction releases energy in the body very quickly. This is a good thing, especially during an intense work out, when your body needs the most energy. Carbohydrates can give you energy, but it comes at a slower pace. When the muscles are using ATP for energy, a chemical process occurs where the ATP is broken down into two simpler chemicals, ADP (adenosine did-phosphate) and inorganic phosphate. This process of ATP turning into ADP releases the energy, which ...

Analysing The Baby Bonus Scheme Health And Social Care Essay

For the past few old ages, aging population has been the chief concern faced by several developed states. British Columbia is one state that faced an aging population. Much research was conducted in this state to work out the job and it was revealed that the chief cause of this state of affairs is the worsening of birthrate rate over decennaries [ 1 ] . Entire Fertility Rate ( TFR ) is defined as the figure of kids an mean adult female would hold presuming that she lives her full generative life-time [ 2 ] . Considered as a developed state, Singapore has besides faced a serious job of worsening TFR. With TFR of 1.16 in 2010 [ 3 ] , Singapore is ranked hundred-and-seventieth [ 4 ] in the universe and arguably one of the lowest TFR in the universe. Singapore authorities has implemented some policies to promote Singaporean to hold more kids, and hence increase the TFR. The latest and most comprehensive policy to this terminal is the babe fillip strategy. A group of research workers from Melbourne Institution of Applied Economics and Social Research investigated the consequence of babe fillip towards TFR. Based on their theoretical account ; baby fillip exerted a little positive consequence on birthrate purpose which leaded to a positive impact on birthrate rate. The consequence seemed to be stronger for 2nd and perchance higher-order numbered kids. In add-on, the consequence showed that fillip consequence is lasting [ 5 ] . However this survey could non find that the consequence would be similar in local context, Singapore. Since there is no formal research particular on look intoing TFR and pamper fillip strategy, our research will concentrate chiefly on look intoing the effectivity of babe fillip on TFR and position of the immature coevals with respects to this strategy. We regard a policy is effectual when it is able to change by reversal the current diminishing tendency of TFR. We will besides look into the most of import factor that peoples consider with respects to be aftering for kids. Suggestions that will function to better the effectivity of this policy will be given every bit good. The expected consequence for our analysis is that babe fillip is less effectual in increasing Singaporeis TFR. Other factors such as the psychological-thinking and societal factors which may impact TFR will non be included in our survey. To do our research clearer and all-rounded, we introduce two subdivisions under debut, which describe the worsening tendency of TFR from 1990 to 2000 and reexamine the factors that affect TFR. The treatment of this paper will be separated into two chief parts, which are the method subdivision and consequences and treatment subdivision. The first portion will concentrate on explicating our study method and stuffs that we obtained from authorities records. Under the consequence subdivision, we will discourse our analysis utilizing primary and secondary informations. The treatment focuses on effectivity of baby fillip policy in Singapore. Finally in the decision subdivision we will sum up the important findings of our survey and specify the background for future research to deduce better methods to get by with birthrate. 1.1 Singapore Demographic Pattern Figure 1.1 The new way of policy since the 1990is is in stressing the importance of get downing a household and holding multiple kids to a successful and all-around life. As seen from figure above, the TFR has continued to worsen steadily throughout the late ninetiess and early 2000s. This has raised concerns to the authorities as it is below the replacing rate of 2.1 [ 6 ] that is needed by Singapore. 1.2 Review of factors impacting TFR 1.2.1. Education derived function and alterations in political orientation Education gives one a strong head of their ain in prosecuting their dreams that include a stable and esteemed calling. A twenty-four hours of 24 hours will be used to prosecute their dreams, go forthing minimum clip for household planning and childbirth. Puting high value on work by both females and males would increase the chance cost of holding kids. This might explicate the falling tendency in TFR. 1.2.2. Fiscal grounds The lifting costs of life and holding babes are discouraging newly-weds from childbearing. The mean earning of an employee is about S $ 4000 per month in 2010 [ 7 ] . If we were to take merely two most basic disbursals, kid lovingness fees and hospitalization measures that are incurred during and instantly after gestating, we can cognize that fiscal load is an disposed account for the worsening TFR in Singapore. Childcare services are priced at S $ 776 and S $ 572 for mean full twenty-four hours and half twenty-four hours fees severally in 2010 [ 8 ] . While hospitalization fee for female parents after bringing in an mean ward of B2 fluctuates between S $ 1000 and S $ 1200 [ 9 ] . The entire charge for these two constituents of expected disbursals can amount to S $ 2000, which is already half of the wage of an mean worker in Singapore. Such high degree of disbursement on one kid can so deter a important figure of newly-weds in holding kids, and our analysis is non even taking into hi story the changeless economy of financess for advanced acquisition and schooling in Singapore every bit good as day-to-day disbursals on nutrient and vesture for the kid. Clearly, childbearing is non an easy undertaking as it takes old ages of support from the point of gestating till the point of independency. Fiscal restraints can possibly be the most of import ground why there is a diminution in TFR observed in Singapore. 2. Method We use secondary and primary informations to discourse the effectivity of babe fillip strategy. Secondary information was obtained from administrative records while primary informations was taken from study. The sample of our study was NTU undergraduates aged from 19 to 26 and selected by convenience sampling. We restricted our sample merely on Singaporeans and Singaporean PRs because babe fillip strategy is more eligible to them. The targeted size was 100 participants, 50 males and 50 females. A pilot study was done on 50 respondents with our drafted sample study. We received feedback that our inquiries were insistent and ill-defined. Leading inquiries were besides heedlessly included. Some of the open-ended inquiries were left space, demoing that the inquiries discouraged participants to reply wholly. Consequences shown from this pilot study were inconsistent and hard to analyse accurately. To better on our research work, we conducted another study with freshly phrased inquiries which are simpler and more straightforward. At the start, we had inquiries aiming the figure of kids our respondents are be aftering to hold. The consequences here gave us a unsmooth thought of the TFR that Singapore will hold with its current subsidy policies in topographic point. Subsequently, we required respondents to rank the factors that affect their determination on the figure of kids they were to hold. The most highly-ranked factors can help Singapore in planing or revising constabularies for greater impact on Singaporeis TFR. Next, we had inquiry taking to happen out whether babe fillip had a say in their household planning. This was to find the comparative importance of babe fillip strategy. Relatively high importance placed by Singaporean will let greater infinite for control over the population size. We besides suggested a superior system for Singaporeis authorities inducement strategy to happen out about the policy that authorities should concentrate on. Last, we welcomed suggestions from respondents to give them an avenue for showcasing their point of views sing the subsidy policies in inquiry. 3. Result and Discussion The Baby Bonus Scheme is a two-tiered strategy, comprising of a direct hard currency gift from the authorities and a co-saving agreement in which the authorities lucifers dollar for dollar the sum parents put into a Child Development Account ( CDA ) , capable to a maximal sum [ 10 ] . It was foremost implemented in 2001. With the babe fillip strategy, 2nd or 3rd kid can convey important pecuniary benefits for the parents from 2001 [ 10 ] . The Baby Bonus Scheme did assist to settle the concerns of twosomes who find the fiscal load of raising a kid excessively heavy to bear. Monetary wagess given out to parents can be used subsidise the childis early old ages of instruction and medical demands. Figure 3.1 Table 3.2 From the figure above, we noticed that between 1997 and 1998, TFR dropped significantly by 0.15, compared to a twelvemonth before where the lessening was 0.06. We notice that there was a important difference in the lessening. A possible account is that Asiatic fiscal crisis had taken topographic point during 1997-1998 and this might back up our outlook that fiscal factors are impacting the determination of twosomes to hold kids. The authorities may therefore make up one's mind to undertake the low TFR job from the fiscal facet by implementing babe fillip strategy in 2001. 3.1. Secondary informations Figure 3.2 shows that after execution of the babe fillip policy, the TFR from 2001-2004 dropped by 0.15. In the span of four old ages ( 1997-2000 ) we observed that TFR had dropped by 0.20. Comparing these two Numberss, TFR still falls, but it is falling at a diminishing rate, this suggests that babe fillip is so effectual to a certain extent. There was a alteration of policy in 2004 because the declared end of returning birthrate to replacement had non been achieved. Under the new strategy, the hard currency gift that parents received from the authorities was increased for the first to 4th born kid. Looking at period of 2004-2008, there was an overall addition of TFR by 0.02. Further sweetening was done in 2008. However looking at the TFR tendency, it showed a autumn of TFR by 0.12 from 2008-2010. Hence, the effectivity of babe fillip is so problematic. In decision, the execution of babe fillip is good in assisting to decelerate down the lessening in TFR but it was non able to change by reversal the tendency. This shows that baby fillip policy is uneffective in increasing the TFR. 3.2. Primary informations The consequences attained from our study will be brooding of the younger coevals about their position towards the authorities subsidy policies. 3.2.1 Entire Fertility Rate Figure 3.3 Figure 3.3 shows that 56 % our participants planned to hold a two kids and 20 % of them chose three kids. The per centum of people non be aftering to hold any kid is 10 % . This can be interpreted that most of the respondents will be willing to hold kids. TFR Gender Female Male Both female and male Average or average 1.76 2.3 2.03 Standard Error ( Deviation ) 0.87037 0.99488 0.96875 Table 3.4 To specify the entire birthrate rate more accurately, we will look into the different in expected TFR for both genders. Our findings show that if male is the determination shaper, the TFR will be 2.3 and if it is female, the expected TFR is 1.76. To acquire an accurate scope for the expected Entire Fertility Rate, we will use the interval appraisal method. We used 95 % assurance interval ( C.I ) as our base. For given a, ( 100- 100a ) % assurance interval means that ( 100- 100a ) % in chance that the true value of this TFR is inside this estimated interval. Hence, the value of a is equal to 0.05 if we use 95 % C.I. The lower edge of assurance interval is defined as ( X-tn-1 ( a /2 ) * s/vn ) , and ( X+ tn-1 ( a /2 ) * s/vn ) is the upper edge for assurance interval. We get the value of tn-1 ( a /2 ) from the t-distribution tabular array. Explanations: 1. N is the sample size 2. Ten is the mean ( refer to postpone 3.4 ) 3. s is defined as standard mistake ( mention to postpone 3.4 ) 4. t49 ( 0.025 ) = 2.01 and t99 ( 0.025 ) = 1.984 Therefore, the estimated interval of TFR when male is the determination shaper is 2.01720 = TFR = 2.58280 While the estimated interval of TFR when female is the determination shaper is 1.51259 = TFR = 2.00741. As the optimal TFR of the authorities is 2.1 [ 6 ] , we can see that if female was the determination shaper, the TFR is below 2.1. However, in doing determination of holding kids, it is non up to one person merely but a joint determination by both male and female. Therefore, it will be more appropriate if we consider the norm TFR as the expected TFR in the hereafter. The expected TFR in the hereafter is between 1.83780 and 2.22220 utilizing the interval appraisal method 3.2.2 Ranking of factors Figure 3.5 The above information show the figure of participants that give rank i1i for the factor that they consider as the most of import with respects to child planning. Consequences revealed that 58 out of 100 respondents chose fiscal factors, followed by calling with 19 out of 100 participants. This consequence supported our outlook that fiscal is the most influential factor with respects to be aftering for kids. Hence, our research will be valuable in helping to better the TFR. 3.2.3 Baby fillip strategy Figure 3.6 Figure 3.7 Figure 3.6 shows that 90 % of the respondents knew the babe fillip strategy, this suggests that the participants are cognizant of the babe fillip strategy. From figure 3.7, 50 % of the participantis determination is affected by the babe fillip strategy. With this sum, we might non be able to reason that it is effectual. However, sing the state of affairs without the strategy, the TFR that we calculated supra has a high likeliness that it is traveling to be lower. This is because half of the participants might make up one's mind to take down their figure of kids planned if babe fillip strategy had non been implemented. Hence, the effectivity of babe fillip is problematic. Figure 3.8 The figure above shows the grounds why Baby Bonus does non impact participantsi determination. 24 out of 50 people thought that babe fillip subsidy is deficient. This shows that they are non satisfied with the current strategy. If pecuniary benefits to be increased, there is a high possibility that this strategy will be more important to increase the TFR. This is besides supported by the grounds, that babe fillip alteration in 2004 was effectual, as TFR increased by 0.02. Figure 3.9 Figure 3.9 shows the figure of participants that give rank i1i for the authorities subsidy policies that they consider as the most of import. As shown above, there is important figure of participants that prioritized health care, instruction and lodging loan with 27 % , 26 % and 25 % severally. However, merely 9 % of the participants chose baby fillip policy as the most of import policy. This shows that authorities should non concentrate their alteration of policies merely on babe fillip. The information suggested that there is an emerging tendency, that people are more disquieted about wellness attention, instruction and lodging affairs. Hence it is advisable that the authorities looks into these three subsidy policies in greater deepness to increase the Singaporeis TFR. Figure 3.10 Figure 3.11 If we separate our treatment into different genders, the impact of babe fillip strategy is greater on males. Referred to calculate 3.10 and 3.11, 60 % of the maleis determination was affected by the strategy, while 40 % of female participants were affected. This shows that babe fillip strategy plays a larger function in act uponing the maleis determination. Uniting the findings, TFR is below the replacing rate of 2.1 if female is the determination shaper. This means authorities should aim more on females and seek to increase the figure of kids they would be after to hold to increase the TFR. As shown from the figure 3.5, females considered fiscal factor as their precedence with 32 out of 50 female participants ranking it as figure 1. With this, focal point should still be given to fiscal factors, such as increasing pecuniary benefits to increase the willingness of adult females to hold more kids. Merely 40 % of the femaleis determination was affected by the babe fillip. We can deduce that increasing the subsidy for babe fillip may be less effectual. Hence, greater focal point should be placed on other subsidy benefits such as health care subsidy, instruction and lodging loans as shown from the figure 3.9. 4. Decision This undertaking studied the impact of Singaporeis babe fillip policy on its entire birthrate rate. Baby fillip policy is non effectual in change by reversaling the tendency of the TFR. However, credits have to be given to pamper fillip as TFR was worsening at a diminishing rate. From our study, we conclude that fiscal facet is the most of import factor in oneis determination in household planning. We found that the expected TFR for female is below the replacing rate ; therefore greater focal point should be put on females. Greater accent should besides be placed on wellness attention, instruction and lodging affairs. One restriction of our undertaking could be found in our study sample. Because the study is conducted within school compounds, we treated all Singaporean respondents as a homogeneous group of highly-educated personal. This is non representative for the whole of Singapore population. We would urge future research to be conducted on a more heterogenous study sample so tha t Singaporean of all backgrounds can be reached.

Report on Inflation

EVOLUTION OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIME: IMPACT ON MACRO ECONOMY OF BANGLADESH by Liza Fahmida A project submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Professional Master in Banking and Finance Examination Committee: Dr. Sundar Venkatesh (Chairperson) Dr. Juthathip Jongwanich Dr. Yuosre Badir Nationality: Bangladeshi Previous Degree: Master in Finance and Banking University of Dhaka Bangladesh Scholarship Donor: Bangladesh Bank Asian Institute of Technology School of Management Thailand May 2012 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The dissertation paper entitled â€Å"Evolution Of Exchange Rate Regime: Impact On Macro Economy Of Bangladesh† has been prepared for the partial fulfillment of Professional master in Banking and Finance (PMBF) program conducted by School of Management, AIT, Thailand. I would like to offer my wholehearted gratitude and respect to a good number of people who offered encouragement, data and information, inspiration and assistance during the course of co nstructing this dissertation paper.It would be difficult to prepare the paper and to present it in a lucid manner within stipulated time without the help of my guide teacher Dr. Sundar Venkatesh, Adjunct Faculty, School of Management, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand. His utmost care, constant support and meticulous supervision guided me through the process. I am indebted to Begum Sultana Razia, General Manager, Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank, whose sincere co-operation and valuable advice help me to prepare this paper.I would like to thank all of my colleagues and other employees of Foreign Exchange Policy Department and Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank for their assistance in this regard. I would like to thank all of fellow course mates who contributed through their comments and suggestions to prepare the report in a comprehensive manner. ii ABSTRACT Bangladesh had two different exchange rate regimes- a fixed exchange rate system from January 1972-Ma y 2003 and a floating exchange rate regime since June 2003. After adopting the floating exchange rate regime Bangladesh experienced positive impacts on macro economic development.The variables of the macroeconomic factors have been considered as foreign reserve, workers’ remittances and export proceeds to evaluate the impact of exchange rate over them in this paper. But the ongoing challenges for the country are the depreciating trend in local currency in a highly inflationary economy. The objective of the paper is to evaluate the macroeconomic performance over the regimes and to analyze present currency situation of Bangladesh. iii Table of Content NO. 01 Title page Acknowledgement Abstract Table of contents List of Figures List of Abbreviations Chapter-01 02 1. 1 Rationale 1. Scope 1. 3 Objectives of the study 1. 4 Methodology 1. 5 Limitations 1. 6 Organization 02 Chapter-02 Literature Review 03 Introduction 3. 1 Factors Affecting Exchange Rate 3. 2 Performance of previous and current FX-Regime in Bangladesh rate of GDP 3. 2. 1 Growth Unde 3. 2. 2 Current Account Balance 3. 2. 3 Inflation Situation 3. 3 Justification of Floating Exchange Rate 3. 4 The Transition from Fixed to Float 04 Chapter-04 Performance of Floating Exchange Rate System On Macro Economy of Bangladesh 4. 1 The Export On Macro Economy of Bangladesh Situation 4. 2 Enhancement of Workers Remittance 4. Reserve Position 4. 4 The Growth Rate of GDP 13 14 14 15 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 Chapter-03 Exchange Rate Evolution in Bangladesh 7 Introduction 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 SECTION Page I ii iii iv V vi iv 4. 5 Relationship among variables 05 Chapter 5 Preset Exchange Rate Situation Preset Exchange Rate Situation 5. 1 Exchange Rate Movement 5. 2 Reasons for Currency Depreciation 5. 2. 1 High Inflation 5. 2. 2 Low Foreign Direct Investment 5. 2. 3 Trade Deficit Chapter 6 06 Recommendation and Conclusion 6. 1. Control Inflation 6. 2. Reduce Trade Deficit 6. 3 Enhancing Foreign Direct Investment 6. 3 Effective Capital Market 6. Short Term Foreign Borrowings 6. 5 Effective Capital Market 6. 6 Derivatives Market 6. 7 Formation of Domestic FX Market 6. 8 Autonomy of the Central Bank 07 08 References Appendix Trade Deficit of Bangladesh Yearly Reserve Position Yearly data of Workers Remittance Yearly data of Inflation Yearly data of Export, Remittance, Reserve and Exchanger Rate Monthly data of Remittance and Exchange Rat Regression Analysis FDI In Bangladesh 16 17 17 17 18 18 19 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 v LIST OF FIGURES TITLE 3. 4 3. 5 4. 1 4. 2 4. 3 4. 4 5. 1 5. 2 5. 3 5. Exchange Rate Movement immediately after inception of Floating Comparison of month end Real Effective Exchange Rate The Export Volume in US$ The Workers Remittance The Foreign Reserve Position (REER) and Nominal Exchange Bangladesh GDP Growth Rate Rate between 2003-2004. Exchange Rate Movement Figure: Inflation Growth Rate of Foreign Direct Investment Trade Deficit of Bangladesh PAGE 11 11 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 vi LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AD ADB BB FDI FPI FX FY GDP IMF LC Authorized Dealers Asian Development Bank Bangladesh Bank Foreign Direct Investment Foreign Portfolio Investment Foreign Exchange Financial YearGross Domestic Product International Monetary Fund Letter of Credit NEER OANDA REER USD Net Effective Exchange Rate Website of exchange rates information. Real Effective Exchange Rate Us Dollar vii Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION At the preamble of the Bangladesh Bank order, 1972, it is stated that â€Å"Whereas it is necessary to establish a central bank in Bangladesh to manage the monetary and credit system of Bangladesh with a view to stabilizing domestic monetary value and maintaining a competitive external par value of the Bangladesh Taka toward fostering growth and development of country’s productive resources in the national interest. To maintain a competitive external par value of the Bangladesh Taka, as per Foreign Exchange Regulation Act, 1947, Bangl adesh Bank as a central bank of the country, regulates the foreign exchange on behalf of the government 1. 1 Rationale: Exchange rate indicates the global position of economy of the country. The country’s economic development is closely related with it’s foreign exchange system. Foreign exchange rate is a vital component for the country’s economic activities too. Bangladesh has been experienced the floating exchange rate regime since May 2003 and passed a number of Pons and cons in the overall economy.Due to the utmost importance of the exchange rate in the economy, the study has been conducted in this area. 1. 2 Scope: This paper covers the comparison of the fixed and floating exchange regime of Bangladesh. The key factor of this paper is the evaluation of the impact of exchange rate on the fundamental macroeconomic indicators of the economy. Three main fundamental factors have been identified to measure their impact with exchange rate. Those are export, worker s remittance and foreign exchange reserve. The empirical data of 2000 to 2012 has been used to ustify the whole thing. To get an idea about the Bangladesh’s position, some neighboring country’s experience also been compared here. 1. 2 Objectives of the study 1. To evaluate the exchange rate regimes in Bangladesh economy: Fixed and Floating 2 To evaluate the floating arrangement's performance in three macro economic variables: Export, Workers Remittance and Foreign Reserve. 3 To understand the reason for currency depreciation 1 1. 4 Methodology To obtain the objectives of the study, secondary data have collected.The sources of data are Bangladesh Bank, Board of Investment, Export Promotion Bureau, Websites of IMF, ADB, OANDA and other related links. Statistical analysis correlation has been calculated to understand the exchange rate’s significance on the economic variables of Export, Workers Remittance and Foreign Reserve . 1. 5. Limitations There were some limit ations to conduct the study. Being, sensitive, new one, problems were faced to relate with various components and linking with them. And for its very nature, primary data was not available.Since the exchange rate regime is a vast area, it was also challenging to prepare this report within a limited time. 1. 6. Organization There are six chapters in this report. Chapter I is the introduction that divided into six sub sections. Literature Review is in Chapter 2. Exchange Rate Evaluation in Bangladesh has been covered in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 covers Performance of Floating Exchange Rate System On Macro Economy of Bangladesh. Present exchange rate situation is describing in Chapter 5. The last chapter covers recommendation and conclusion. 2Chapter 2 LITERATURE REVIEW The basic policy variables of country is foreign exchange rate that ensured trade, business, long term funding, foreign direct investment, inflation, foreign exchange reserve, inward remittance etc. Various economists opined that the policy of the exchange rate system had a crucial impact on 1990’s economic catastrophe. Nevertheless, it is yet to be proved either theoretically or empirically regarding the role of exchange rate on the indicators of macroeconomic variables. Whatever the case may be, different countries adopt different exchange rate policies.Bangladesh, the focus of this paper, had a fixed exchange rate system in place since January, 3 1972. After more than 31 years, the Central Bank of Bangladesh (Bangladesh Bank) changed it into a floating exchange rate system in June 2003. Bangladesh has been pursuing a floating exchange rate system since then. Dr. Mirza Azizul Islam, the former advisor, Ministry of Finance of the Caretaker Government of Bangladesh, presented a paper in January 2003, right before the shift from fixed to floating regime, explaining the overall performance of the fixed regime and the probable implications of the floating regime on Bangladesh economy.He suggested t hat the experiences of other countries in the region show that floating regime generates greater volatility in exchange rates and this sort of uncertainty is likely to affect adversely the overall trade and investment climate which is already afflicted by many unfavorable elements in Bangladesh (See Islam, 2003). Bangladesh pursued a ‘fixed exchange rate’ regime upto 1979. After that, from 1979 to mid-2003, it followed a managed floating exchange rate system.Repeated depression of the home money, for maintaining a steady real exchange rate as well as keeping away from overvaluation of the local taka, were the prime factors for taking new system of the foreign exchange system. From May, 2003, Bangladesh took almost a new policy known as ‘clean floating’ exchange rate policy by creating fully convertible current account. But capital account convertibility is not yet done. The main reasons for all the policies that Bangladesh took were due to improve export si tuation, decrease import liability with the aim of improving balance of trade.The evidences in favor of the above mentioned opinion have been placed below. Islam( 2003) told that the regulators of the monetary policy decides the exchange rate policy of the country in order to obtain two basic goals. The first one is â€Å"domestic target† that covers preventing inflation rate of inflation, the growth of credit both in Government and Private levels, and also the growth in liquidity and M2. The second reason is â€Å"external target† which considers foreign exchange reserve hike, declining current account balance, prevent exchange rate volatility in the country’s nterbank foreign exchange market as well as balance the exchange rate flow with neighboring countries like India, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Pakistan etc. Hossain (2005) referreing Rahman and Bayes that Bangladesh took floating exchange rate system due to: (i) global competitiveness; (ii) improve export dimension s ;(iii) eliminate subsidy from export; (iv) reduce import pressure; (v) increase the substitutes products for export. Aziz (2003) showed that according to the statements of the finance ministers for 3 ast decades, the prime causes of devaluation of taka in our country (i) rise in export;(ii) reduce import;(iii) improve local newborn industries; (iv) promote the inward remittances trough pursue wage earners, and (v) increase foreign exchange reserve. As per the â€Å"Financial Sector Review(2006)’ of the central bank of the country, the major reasons of exchange rate policy covers: (i) export promotion; (ii) encourage inward remittances;(iii) keeping the price level stable, and (iv) preserve a variable account situation externally.As a result, all the publications and write-ups have illustrated both directly or indirectly the export-growth and import reduction as the key reasons of the exchange rate policy of the country. Prior to adopting floating exchange rate regime, Isla m (2003) argued that the economic and institutional prerequisites of a floating exchange rate regime are not met in Bangladesh. Some recent studies have tried to explain the behavior of nominal exchange rates of Bangladesh after its transition to the floating rate regime.By doing a correlation analysis, Rahman and Barua (2006) explore the possible explanation of the exchange rate movement. They found that there is a strong correlation (-0. 40) between depreciation and export-import gap as a share of reserves; L/C openings for imports also have a positive correlation (0. 45) with volatility of the exchange rate, which implies that the higher the L/C openings the more volatile is the exchange rate.They conclude that high seasonal demand for foreign currency because of increased import bills, systematic withdrawal of excess liquidity by Bangladesh Bank, relatively faster expansion of credit and higher interest rates on various national savings instruments are the reasons behind the int erest rate hike in the money market and depreciation of the nominal exchange rate. William Miles, 2006 discussed about the effect of exchange rate system (both fixed and floating) on the long term growth in the economy.The effect of fixed rate, pegged rate and floating rate has been discussed here briefly on the basis of several literature reviews and the finding is that fixed and intermediate regimes have a clear, significantly negative impact on growth (holds only for emerging markets not for industrial nations. ) In this paper, the author has given an approach to determine if exchange rate regime itself truly extracts an independent effect on growth.Results here indicate that the effect of fixed exchange rates on growth in emerging markets is not direct, but rather contingent on the existence of macroeconomic imbalances and other distortions in place in the domestic economy. These results seem to conform more closely with exchange rate theory, which posits mostly positive, and fe w negative channels for pegged currencies to impact growth over the long run. Asad Karim Khan, June 2009 examines whether the floating exchange rate regime has any impact on the value of Bangladesh taka i,e does it make any lose on the value of the currency.He shows that regime change has no statistically significant impact on the value of Bangladesh currency once foreign exchange reserve is incorporated in the regression model. Younus and Chowdhury (2006) made an attempt to analyse Bangladesh's transition to floating regime and its impact on macroeconomic variables. They find that output growth in Bangladesh performed well in the intermediate and floating exchange rate regimes. Inflation is lower in the intermediate regime despite higher money supply and exchange rate depreciation. They also find that currency depreciation boosted export growth in the floating regime.Chowdhury and Siddique (2006) have analysed the exchange rate pass through to domestic inflation in Bangladesh. 4 Th e experiences of some countries in the region which implemented major changes in their exchange rate regimes in recent years can provide useful lessons for Bangladesh. I have tried to focus the comparison among different economic indicators between Bangladesh and some of the South Asian Countries (Afghanistan, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) all of which adopted independently floating exchange rate regimes.Trade and financial policy measures are very important for the country’s economy and out of that consideration, Bangladesh has taken a new exchange rate policy according to the obligations of IMF (article number: VIII), as on 24th March,1994 introducing current account fully convertible. At the same time, Bangladesh was under pressure since it is the member of IMF. As a result, Bangladesh took floating exchange rate system in current account on 31st May, 2003. After that, IMF agreed Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for our country with a new exchange rate system i,e, floating exchange rate system.However, Younus et al (2006) showed that free floating exchange rate system can arrange the prevention of overvaluation of local currency as it might make the export unattractive in the international world as well as alternative items of importable goods became difficult to bit with import goods. He illustrated that the prime goal of free floating system of exchange rate is supposed to avoid the main misalignment of exchange rate, specially, to stop unpredictable appreciation of real rate of exchange that might affect the demand of the total export of the country.The illustrations also included the encouragement of the export situation and decline the shortfall of the current account, control inflationary situation, and increase the position of inward remittances. Since the independence of the country, Bangladesh is following an dynamic exchange rate system that has been replicated in the nominal exchange rate that were de clared by the central bank of the country time to time. Islam (2003) stated 89 modifications in the exchange rate of Bangladesh currency with USdollar since 1983 and among them, 83 were depression.Aziz (2003) illustrated 41 depreciation in nine years (1991-2000). Younus et al (2006) showed that 130 times depreciation took place between 1972 to 2002 in Bangladesh Taka that also reduce balance of payment deficit. So, this paper, correctly identifies the exchange rate as the main important thing for economic changes of the country. After independence, Bangladesh fixed its Taka’s value with British Pound Sterling on 3rd 1972. Since 1972 to 1990 the Taka was overvalued. So there was a huge deficit in Balance of payment that hurt the economy badly.From 1990 the gap began to narrow down. The exchange rate regime worked quite well in terms of balance of payment, inflation, export and remittance. So there were some debate about incipience of this floating and criticism also rose about competence and preparation of Bangladesh Bank. But Bangladesh Bank performed well in managing the ‘new born’. But there is some volatility in the market in recent past. Bangladesh Bank, as a central bank of the country intervened prudently to curve the volatility and market became stable though Taka remains undervalued.The experiences of South East and South Asian countries showed that they had to intervene in the market for smooth moving. The experience supports the Mr. Kindleberger beliefs that â€Å"market work well on the whole† but occasionally â€Å"will be overwhelmed and 5 need help† from a lender of the last resort. (The Economist, July 19th 2003). So the regulator should be watchful about the market’s behavior and intervene when needed without hesitations. In the developing country these kind of intervention should be proactive rather than reactive.Naeem and Rasheed analyzed another important issue of whether stock prices and exchange rat es are related or not has received considerable attention after the East Asian crises. They said that during the crises the countries affected saw turmoil in both currency and stock markets. If stock prices and exchange rates are related and the causation runs from exchange rates to stock prices then crises in the stock markets can be prevented by controlling the exchange rates. Moreover, developing countries can exploit such a link to attract/stimulate foreign portfolio investment in their own countries.Similarly, if the causation runs from stock prices to exchange rates then authorities can focus on domestic economic policies to stabilize the stock market. If the two markets/prices are related then investors can use this information to predict the behavior of one market using the information on other market. They also claimed that most of the empirical literature that has examined the stock prices-exchange rate relationship has focused on examining this relationship for the develo ped countries with very little attention on the developing countries.This paper will assess whether the exchange rate regime change indeed has created any significant impact on the economy of the nation as well as the comparative analysis with the neighboring countries situation. There are some potentialities as well as difficulties in market based system, so in this study there are some recommendations for the regulator and for the market players. To manage the floating exchange rate, full automation as well as transparency is essential in banking sector. As the capital account of our economy is not convertible there is little scope of capital flight.If the inception of floating exchange rate is the beginning to liberalize capital account immediately that won’t be a wise decision. 6 Chapter 3 Exchange Rate Evolution in Bangladesh Introduction: The world economy experienced some sort of fixed and flexible exchange rate. Before 1875 there was Bimetalism of exchange rate and th en the Gold Standard (1875-1914). During Interwar period (1914-1944) the classical Gold Standard broken down and in July 1944 representatives of 44 countries succeeded to establish the ‘Bretton Woods’ system.Again the oil shock in the early 1970s and the dampen of demand broken down this system and world economy shifted to flexible exchange rate. Bangladesh has been experienced two major exchange rate regimes since the country’s Independence from 16th December1971. A Fixed Exchange Rate Regime from 1972 to 1979 and a Floating Exchange Rate Regime since May 2003. Among the time frame from 1971 to 2003, there were different exchange rate arrangements in terms of the currency mechanism, like: Pegged to Pound Sterling (? :1972-1979;Pegged to a basket of major trading partners’ currencies(? as the intervening currencies):1980-1982;Pegged to a basket of major trading partners’ currencies(US$ as the intervening currencies):19831999;Adjusted Pegged System:2 000-2003;Floatig Exchange Rate System: May 30, 2003Present. All the policies of exchange rate system Bangladesh implemented, with the objectives of accelerating exports, reducing import pressure and improve the balance of trade. After independence, Bangladesh fixed its Taka’s value with British Pound Sterling on 3rd 1972.Since 1972 to 1990 the Taka was overvalued. So there was a huge deficit in Balance of payment that hurt the economy badly. From 1990 the gap began to narrow down. The exchange rate regime worked quite well in terms of balance of payment, inflation, export and remittance. 3. 1 Factors Affecting Exchange Rate: Under Floating Exchange Rate Arrangements Exchange Rate is primarily determined by demand for foreign currency and Supply of foreign currency where demand and supply of foreign currency is also affected by some other sensitive factors.According to Jeff. Madura, (International Financial Management) theoretically demand for foreign currency is determined by several factors like, import payments, service payments which includes income payments, debt service payments, foreign investment (outward) and foreign investment (outward). The supply of foreign currency is composed of export Receipt, service receipts which includes income receipts, debt service receipts, foreign aid (inward) and foreign Investment (inward).Besides those some other factors affect the exchange rate movements. The factors are a)Purchasing Power parity; b)Interest rate parity; c) Relative income differential; d)Government Control; e)Expectations etc. 7 3. 2 Performance of previous and current FX-Regime in Bangladesh To evaluate the performance of Bangladesh considering the two different exchange rate regimes, some data comparison have been made among three neighboring countries in South Asia. Those are India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. 3. 2. Growth rate of GDP Comparing the percentage of growth rate with major neighboring Countries, the following table shows that Bangla desh was more or less in a similar situation before the adoption of floating exchange rate regime. Since 2003 with the new floating exchange rate system, there is also a positive trend of the GDP growth rate except 2009-2010. The global recession affect the overall growth of the country at that time. Table 3. 1: Growth rate of GDP (% per year) Y Country Banglades h India Pakistan Sri Lanka 2001 5. 3 5. 8 1. 8 -1. 5 2002 4. 4 4. 0 3. 1 4. 0 2003 5. 3 8. 2 5. 1 5. 9 2004 5. 7 7. 4 5. 5 5. E 2005 A 2006 R 200 7 6. 4 9. 2 6. 8 6. 8 6. 0 6. 6 7. 6 9. 7 5. 8 5. 8 5. 5 7. 7 200 8 6. 2 6. 7 3. 7 6. 0 200 9 5. 7 8. 0 1. 2 3. 5 2010 5. 8 8. 6 4. 1 7. 6 2011 6. 3 8. 2 2. 5 8. 0 Source: Asian Development Outlook-2004 and 2011, ADB 3. 2. 2 Current Account Balance In comparison to other major South Asian countries, the table no. -2 shows that Bangladesh's achievement in terms of containing current account balance is better after the adoption of floating exchange rate regime (since 2003). It has d one consistently better than some of the neighboring countries like Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and India in all recent years excepting 2005.Table No. 3. 2 Current Account Balance as Percentages of GDP Y 2003 0. 5 0. 7 5. 9 -2. 2 E 2004 0. 0 0. 3 3. 0 -3. 0 A 2006 1. 3 -1. 2 -3. 9 -5. 3 R 2007 1. 4 -1. 4 -4. 8 -4. 3 Country Banglades h India Pakistan Sri Lanka 1999 -1. 5 -1. 1 -3. 0 -3. 6 2000 -1. 1 -0. 8 -0. 4 -6. 4 2001 -2. 3 0. 2 0. 6 -1. 5 2002 0. 4 0. 8 4. 6 -1. 8 2005 -1. 5 0. 3 2. 1 -3. 5 2008 0. 9 -2. 4 -8. 5 -9. 5 2009 2010 2. 7 3. 7 -2. 8 -5. 7 -0. 5 -3. 0 -2. 2 -3. 8 2011 0. 2 -3. 5 -1. 7 -4. 0 Source: Asian Development Outlook-2011, ADB 8 3. 2. Inflation Situation Exchange rate regime and inflation are relevant because a change in the exchange rate is almost certain to cause a change in the domestic price of tradable and indirectly the price of non-tradable also. The international competitiveness of the economy is badly eroded by inflation. It generally encourages capital fligh t, exacerbates income distribution, gives rise to inequities in income distribution and aggravates poverty. The relevant data are presented in the following table no. -3. Table 3. 3: Inflation in Bangladesh and Selected South Asian Countries Y 2002 200 3 2. 8 4. 4 3. 4 3. 5 10. 2 5. 3 3. 1 2. 6 E 200 4 4. 5. 0 4. 0 A 2005 5. 2 5. 0 6. 2 2006 7. 2 5. 2 7. 9 10. 0 R 200 7 7. 2 5. 0 7. 8 15. 8 Country Banglades h India Pakistan Sri Lanka 1999 8. 9 3. 3 5. 7 5. 9 2000 3. 4 7. 2 3. 6 1. 2 2001 1. 6 4. 7 4. 4 11. 0 200 8 9. 9 8. 7 12. 0 22. 6 200 9 6. 7 2. 1 20. 8 3. 4 2010 7. 3 9. 2 11. 7 5. 9 2011 8. 0 7. 8 16. 0 8. 0 Source: Asian Development Outlook-2011, ADB It is showing that there is an increasing trend of inflation since the adaptation of floating exchange rate regime. Data on inflation rates represent period averages. Except for India, which reports the wholesale price index, inflation rates presented are based on consumer price indexes.The higher inflationary situation take plac e due oil and food price hike in the international market as well as several natural disaster like, Sidor, flood etc. 3. 3 Justification of Floating Exchange Rate: From the above mentioned data analysis, it can be said the previous regime performed quite well in certain criteria. The major reasons behind the adoption of new exchange rate system is mainly the government’s commitment to the liberalization of the country’s economy and to take the appropriate steps to create suitable environment of the economy for entering into capital account convertibility regime.Rather than this, there was IMF's ‘conditionalities' to enter into new floating exchange rate regime. 3. 4 The Transition from Fixed to Float: To meet up the economic demand and to fulfill the IMF conditionality, on 29 May, 2003 Bangladesh Bank issued a circular stating- effective from 31st May, 2003, Bangladesh Bank floated its exchange rate and followed a fully market based exchange rate for Taka. Under this arrangement, exchange rate is determined on the basis of demand and supply of the respective currencies.Immediately after the inception of floating exchange rate banks, economists, currency traders and businessmen have welcomed the deregulation of the exchange rate saying that 9 the country's foreign trade and remittance would get a boast up due to it and it would make the currency market more efficient and effective. Since the introduction there is no unusual raise of exchange rate till mid 2004. Most of the time Taka maintains appreciating position during this period and Bangladesh Bank show a tremendous performance managing the ‘new born' exchange rate system.During mid 2004, Taka faced significant volatility against USD and it continued up to August 2004. After that period, the volatility of exchange rate of Taka against USD eased but resulting to appreciated USD till mid January 2005. In recent times, Taka has depreciated significantly against USD in the inter-bank m arket. This has happened as because of price hike in oil price and scrap vessel in the international market created a surge on import settlements. Figure3. 4: Exchange Rate Movement immediately after inception of Floating Exchange Rate Movment 58. 7 58. 65 58. 6 58. 55 58. 5 58. 45 58. 4 58. 35 58. 3 58. 25 58. Exchange Rate TK/$ Jun'-01 Jun'-04 Jun'-08 Jun'-11 Jun'-15 Jun'-18 Jun'-22 Jun'-25 Jun'-29 July'-03 July'-07 July'-10 July'-14 July'-17 July'-21 July'-24 July'-28 Banking days Source: Bangladesh Bank Unpublished Data Behavior of Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) and Nominal Exchange Rate: REER is considered as a guiding FX-rate to the policy maker as well as the market participants and it also shows the international competitiveness of countries goods and services. The policy makers are always tried to keep the Nominal Exchange Rate near to the REER. Before 1990 Taka was overvalued (see table no-01,02 and 03. that distorted our international competitiveness and that was the causes of prolonged Balance of Payment crisis. Figure3. 5: Comparison of month end Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) and Nominal Exchange Rate between 2003-2004. 10 July'-31 62. 00 61. 00 60. 00 Behavior of REER and Nominal FX-Rate Rate TK/$ 59. 00 58. 00 57. 00 56. 00 55. 00 54. 00 REER-2003 53. 00 Nominal TK/$-2003 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec REER-2004 Nominal TK/$-2004 Months Source: Bangladesh Bank Unpublished Data After 1990, Taka remained undervalued. The gap between Nominal Exchange Rate and REER were widened over the period.Before inception of floating exchange rate Taka was almost running on a free float for the last 12-15 month as rates were decided according to demand-supply situation and liquidity in market. Bangladesh Bank was also not virtually selling any dollar that time. This means the market has already factored in floating exchange rate. Moreover, before inception Bangladesh Bank took some measures for strengthening regulation, such as, keep ing close observation of Authorized Dealer’s (AD’s) daily activities; especially on ‘Open Position’, gave pressure for reconciliation of NOSTRO account balance, encourage every bank to set up dealing room and ressurized to make payment in due time etc. So we can obviously say that way to the floating exchange rate was prepared. 11 Chapter 4 Performance of Floating Exchange Rate System On Macro Economy of Bangladesh Introduction of floating exchange rate was debatable issue and also there were some criticisms about the competence of Bangladesh Bank's from some corner. But Bangladesh Bank performed a tremendous performance. There was no volatility; no speculation in price and market behaves rationally. If we consider the market statistics, we find that macro economic variables have positive performances over the period of time.Three major variables have been considered for evaluating the impact of exchange rate with them. The variables are Export, Workers Re mittances and Foreign reserve. 4. 1 The Export Situation: The export trend from 1998 to 2011 shows an increasing trend. It is shown here that there is upward trend of export after 2003,i. e, after adopting the floating exchange rate regime, the export has a robust growth in the economy. Figure:4. 1: The Export Volume in US$ Source: Bangladesh Bank Quarterly, January-March 2011 During the global recession, the export trend of Bangladesh was not that much affected mostly for the RMG sector.In the FY 09 and FY 10, the export volume increased significantly. 4. 2 Enhancement of Workers Remittance: The Inward remittances from Bangladeshi nationals working abroad remained strong in FY10 even in the face of global economic slowdown and continued to play an important role in strengthening the current account. Receipts on this sector increased by 13. 4 percent to USD 10987. 40 million in FY10 from USD 9689. 26 million in FY09. The underlying reason was that Bangladesh Bank has simplified the approval policy of drawing arrangements between foreign exchange houses and domestic banks.As a result, 40 banks 12 have been allowed for establishing 885 drawing arrangements with 300 exchange houses all over the world for collecting remittances, (of which approximately 650 drawing arrangements with 250 exchange houses are operative now). Figure-4. 2: The Workers Remittance Source: Bangladesh Bank Quarterly, January-March 2011 Considering the growth rate of workers’ remittances, it has been observed that the rate is quite higher after the free floating exchange rate regime that is 20. 52 % (2003-2010) than that of fixed exchange rate regime of Bangladesh which is calculated as 11. 9% (19932002). The increasing amount of workers remittance helps to balance the trade deficit in a prudent manner. 4. 3 Reserve Position: The amount of foreign exchange reserve has been increased significantly over the last couple of years. During the FY 2003 to FY 2005, the trend was quite steady and flat. But, it has an upward trend after FY 2007. The main sources of foreign reserve are workers remittance, foreign loans and grants and exports. 13 Figure-4. 3: The Foreign Reserve Position Period Reserves($) 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 469. 6 2705 2930 3483. 8 5077. 2 6148. 8 7470. 9 10749. 7 10911. 6 Source: Bangladesh Bank Quarterly, January-March 2011 After the inception of floating exchange rate regime, the foreign exchange reserve boosted up due to huge amount of workers remittance and increasing trend of export. 4. 4 The Growth Rate of GDP: The GDP growth rate reaches upto 6. 7% during FY 11. From 1994 to 2010, the average growth rate of GDP was 5. 47% reaching at high of 6. 63% in June 2006. The record low rate was 4. 08% during June 2004. For the last couple of years the growth rate was 5% above and Bangladesh is onsidered as a developing country. Figure-4. 4: Bangladesh GDP Growth Rate Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics,2011 14 4. 5 The relationship among the variables: The relationship between the exchange rate and three variables i,e, export, remittance and reserve reflects quite positive in correlation. The correlation has been computed considering the data from 2002-2011. Correlation Exchange Rate Export 0. 928315219 Remittance 0. 859373146 Reserve 0. 825444493 One regression analysis has been done with workers remittance and exchange rate.The purpose of the quantitative analysis is to identify if there is any relationship between exchange rate and workers remittance of Bangladesh. The monthly data of workers remittance from the financial year 2007-2008 to financial year 2011-2012 has been taken for the calculation. The regression model, exchange rate is independent variable and remittance is dependent variable. The regression model is: Y=66. 15+. 010385 remittance The value of R square is . 37 which means that the regression model explains 37% variation in exchange rate. T he coefficient is very low which is and P value is quite high that is 3. 74.So, the remittance does not show any significant impact on foreign exchange rate. 15 Chapter 5 Exchange Rate Situation 5. 1 Exchange Rate Movement: In the recent Taka depreciates against US$ drastically: Over the period, July 2010-January 2012, from Tk 70 to Tk 86 — a depressing 23% fall down. Figure-5. 1: Exchange Rate Movement Source: Website OANDA The sharp fall of taka against US dollar continues for last couple of months. US dollar has been weakening against many other strong currencies like Euro, SF, Yen and GBP but getting stronger against Bangladesh Taka. Exchange rate depreciation creates the economy in a challenging situation.Continuous depreciating tendency higher the inflation rate that ultimately increase the trade deficit. The ongoing depreciation of Bangladeshi taka is becoming the challenge for the central bank as well as the Government. The increasing trend of the trade deficit (figur e: 7) also shows the possibility of the shortage of supply of the foreign currency i,e, US$ in the market. 5. 2 Reasons for Currency Depreciation: The reasons behind the currency depreciation are influenced by economic fundamental, exchange rate regime and Trading rules. There is a slow trend of capital inflow in the country for the last couple of years.The main reasons for that are low tendency of foreign direct investment and increasing trend of trade deficit. 16 5. 2. 1 High Inflation: Inflation is appearing as a major threat in the economy in the recent past. Inflation had a moderate trend upto 2003 within 6%. It started increasing from 2004 and got sharp rise in 2008-2009 and the increasing trend is still continuing. The main cause of high inflation in Bangladesh is oil and food price hike in abroad. Figure 5. 2: Inflation Source: Monthly Economic Trend-Bangladesh Bank, January 2012 The high level of inflation in the economy leads to lower the value of local currency taka.To co ver the deficit budget, Government borrowings from the Central Bank (BB) and overall money supply increased leads to high inflation in the market. 5. 2. 2 Low Foreign Direct Investment: The growth rate of foreign direct investment is showing a declining trend. The data has been used from 1996 to 2011. After 1998 and so on, the trend started to decline sharply. It increased a little bit during 2004-2005 but again has a very declining trend. 17 Figure-5. 3: Growth Rate of Foreign Direct Investment Source: Monthly Economic Trend-Bangladesh Bank, January 2012 In the recent past, the FDI growth rate is severely low.So, proper steps are supposed to be taken by the government authority. 5. 2. 3 Trade Deficit: Though the export volume has an increasing trend since the inception of floating exchange rate regime, there is huge amount of trade deficit with an increasing trend. 18 Figure: 5. 4 Trade Deficit of Bangladesh Source: Monthly Economic Trend-Bangladesh Bank , January 2012 The amount o f import has been increased sharply after 2006-2007. The gap between export and import becomes huge during the last financial year 2010-2011. Due to huge import payment, government debt has increased significantly in the country and demand for foreign currency increased. 9 Chapter 6 Recommendations and Conclusion Considering the above mentioned discussions, some recommendations have been formulated in order to bring stability in the foreign exchange market in the short run and long run for the Government and Bangladesh Bank i,e, the central bank of the country. Those are discussing as follows: 6. 1. Control Inflation: Effective measures are needed to be taken by the central bank to control inflation by reducing money supply in the economy. The formulation of the tighten monetary policy by the central bank is an important factor for controlling inflation.But the deficit budget of the Government creates huge Government Debt and prolong inflationary atmosphere. The related factors for reducing deficit budget 6. 2. Reduce Trade Deficit: One of the important components to reduce the trade deficit is to enhance export volume of goods and services. Bangladesh is a import depended country. The main importable items are petroleum and food. Local industrialization is utmost important specially in the food sector (substitute food items production) and other exportable items to reduce huge liability of the Government. 6. 3 Enhancing Foreign DirectInvestment: Sufficient inflow of foreign direct investment could enhance the capital inflow in the country for long term. Bangladesh Government has specific policy for inviting FDI. Ensuring good governance, Infrastructural development, Utility, political stability will help to promote more investment from abroad in the country. 6. 4 Short Term Foreign Borrowings: Borrowings from abroad is another option for supplying liquidity in the market. But the problem of short-term borrowing is that the country may fall into â€Å"Debt-tr ap† due to be unable to pay the money on time.Once the foreign currency injects in the market, it is difficult to recollect form the market as well. The Central Bank of Philippines in early 1990 can be remembered here. Due to short-term borrowing to meet the local market demand, got huge foreign liability. Continuous losses eroded it’s capital base and made it bankrupt in 1993. It took 25 years to reestablish the new central bank in that country. So, Instead of foreign borrowings, Concessionary loans at a low interest rate from World Bank and ADB and other bilateral donors might be a better option to meet the ongoing gap in the market. . 5 Effective Capital Market: The capital market development is utmost important in order to bring the steady situation in FX market. Ensuring enough flow of Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI), good governance and security in the capital market is time demand. 6. 6 Derivatives Market: Introduction of various derivative products as options , currency swap, interest cap, interest swap, futures, forwards etc, as well as ensuring huge portfolio investment might bring the positive impact in the exchange rate market. 20 6. Formation of Domestic FX Market: A formal forex market forum should be created, with the participation of independent professional bodies and with representation from the dealers association, Bangladesh Bank and other relevant government officials. This forum would provide the logistic support and platform for the forex market. Ideally, this forum would develop a secured web-based market to which only the members or participating organizations would have access. From this website, all the logistic support required for completing the forex dealings among the members/participating organizations could be provided. 6. Autonomy of the Central Bank: The autonomy of the central bank is desirable issue for the economy. The central bank should operate and perform independently with full automation. Conclusion: Th is study shows that floating exchange rate regime has constructive effect on economic growth. The transition period from Fixed rate regime to Floating rate regime was quite smooth and stable. There is significant growth in the fundamental economic variables on the long path of the new exchange rate regime. The trend of export, workers’ remittances and foreign reserves have been analyzed and found considerable growth on these variables.Nevertheless, the ongoing exchange rate depreciation along with high inflation is becoming a challenging issue for the regulators and Government as well. The gap between demand and supply of foreign currency in the market is getting bigger in the high inflationary economy which lead continuous loses in the value of the local currency. The key reasons have been found for the currency depreciation are inflation, government debt, trade deficit, low FDI etc. The study recommended some issues for Government’s and Central’s bank’s part. The regulation should be proactive rather than reactive.There are some potentialities in this new regime; to reap this potentiality, Government as well as regulators should take effective steps. 21 REFERENCES Asian Development Bank. 2011. Asian Development Outlook 2010 Update. Asian Development Bank. 2006. Asian Development Outlook 2005, ADB: Manila, Philippines. Asian Development Bank. Manila,Philippines. 2005. Asian Development Outlook 2005, ADB: Asad Karim Khan Priyo, June 2009,Impact of the Exchange Rate Regime Change on the Value of Bangladesh Currency. Bangladesh Bank Annual Reports. 2010.Dhaka Bangladesh. Bangladesh Bank Monthly Economic Trend. January 2012 Bangladesh Bank, Scheduled Bank Statistics. July-September 2011. Financial Sector Review, 2006, Bangladesh Bank. Hossain, Akter. 2002, Exchange Rate, Capital flows and International Trade. Hossain, M. A. , and Alauddin, M. , (Fall 2005), Trade Liberalization in Bangladesh: The Process and Its Impact on Macro Variabl es Particularly Export Expansion, The Journal of Developing Areas, Volume 39, Issue 1, 127-150. Jeff. Madura, International Financial Management, 10th edition. Islam, Mirza A. 2003): â€Å"Exchange Rate Policy of Bangladesh – Not Floating Does Not Mean Sinking†, Keynote Paper presented at dialogue organized by Centre for Policy Dialogue, Bangladesh – January 2, 2003. Nusrate Aziz . June 2008. The Role of Exchange Rate in Trade Balance: Empirics from Bangladesh. The IMF, Annual Report 2010, Financial operations and transactions, The International Monetary Fund. Younus, S. and Chowdhury, M. I. , (December 2006), An Analysis of Bangladesh’s Transition to Flexible Exchange Rate Regime, Working Paper Series. 22 APPENDIX I Trade Deficit of Bangladesh Export Import Year (in million USD) (in million USD) 1994-95 3472. 5250. 6 1995-96 3882. 4 6237. 9 1996-97 4418. 3 6436. 8 1997-98 5161. 2 6768. 0 1998-99 5312. 8 7205. 4 1999-00 5752. 2 7536. 6 2000-01 6467. 3 840 1. 5 2001-02 5986. 1 7686. 0 2002-03 6548. 4 8691. 8 2003-04 7603. 0 9812. 9 2004-05 8654. 5 11832. 1 2005-06 10526. 2 13271. 7 2006-07 12177. 9 15441. 0 2007-08 14110. 8 19481. 4 2008-09 15565. 2 20291. 4 2009-10 16204. 7 21388. 2 2010-11 22928. 2 32398. 4 Source: Monthly Economic Trend-Bangladesh Bank , January 2012 Trade Deficit (in million USD) -1778. 1 -2355. 5 -2018. 5 -1606. 8 -1892. 6 -1784. 4 -1934. 2 -1699. 9 -2143. 4 -2209. 9 -3177. 6 -2745. 5 -3263. 1 -5370. -4726. 2 -5183. 5 -9470. 2 23 Yearly Reserve Position In million USD Reserves($) Period 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 Source: Monthly Economic TrendBangladesh Bank , January 2012 2469. 6 2705 2930 3483. 8 5077. 2 6148. 8 7470. 9 10749. 7 10911. 6 24 Yearly data of Workers Remittance: Remittances Year/Month 2011-2012* 2010-2011 2009-2010 2008-2009 2007-2008 2006-2007 2005-2006 2004-2005 2003-2004 2002-2003 2001-2002 2000-2001 1999-2000 1998-1999 1997-1998 199 6-1997 1995-1996 1994-1995 1993-1994 1992-1993 In million In million US dollar Taka Growth Rate 2117. 7 11650. 32 10987. 4 9689. 26 7914. 78 5998. 47 4802. 41 3848. 29 3371. 97 3061. 97 2501. 13 1882. 1 1949. 32 1705. 74 1525. 43 1475. 42 1217. 06 1197. 63 1088. 72 944. 57 157668. 7 829928. 9 760109. 59 666758. 5 542951. 4 412985. 29 322756. 8 236469. 7 198698 177288. 2 143770. 3 101700. 1 98070. 3 81977. 8 69346 63000. 4 49704 48144. 7 43549 36970. 4 Average Rate Growth 13. 39772078 22. 41982721 31. 94664639 24. 90541207 24. 79334977 14. 12586707 10. 12420109 22. 42346459 32. 8903884 -3. 448382 14. 28001923 11. 82027363 3. 389543316 21. 22820568 1. 622370849 10. 00349034 15. 2609 20. 51706112 11. 89409131Source : Foreign Exchange Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank Bangladesh Bank Annual Report 2009-2010 Growth rate is self calculated 25 Yearly data of Inflation Year 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Point to Point 1. 66 3. 58 5. 03 5. 64 7. 35 7. 54 9. 2 10. 04 2. 25 8. 7 10. 17 11. 59 12 months average 1. 94 2. 79 4. 38 5. 83 6. 48 7. 16 7. 2 9. 94 6. 66 7. 31 8. 8 10. 91 Source: Monthly Economic Trend-Bangladesh Bank , January 2012 26 Yearly data of Export, Remittance, Reserve and Exchanger Rate (In million USD) Workers Year FX Rate Export Remittance in mil US$ (in mil US$) 62. 691 2501. 13 FY02 5985. 89 63. 2216 3061. 97 FY03 6548. 54 64. 0869 3371. 97 FY04 7602. 99 68. 0508 3848. 29 FY05 8654. 52 73. 9865 4802. 41 FY06 10526. 16 74. 1681 5998. 47 FY07 12177. 86 73. 4636 7914. 78 FY08 12685. 4 73. 8228 9689. 26 FY09 14170. 7 74. 5518 10987. 4 FY10 14763. 8 79. 1877 11650. 32 FY11 20313. 8 Source: Monthly Economic Trend-Bangladesh Bank , January 2012 Reserve (in mil US$) 1582. 9 2469. 6 2705 2930 3483. 8 5077. 2 6148. 8 7470. 9 10749. 7 10911. 6 27 Monthly data of Remittance and Exchange Rate Year Month Remittance ( In million USD) Ex rate (average) Year Month Remittance ( In million USD) Ex rate (average) 007-08 2008-09 2009-10 July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June 567. 11 470. 95 590. 67 559. 05 617. 39 635. 34 710. 74 689. 26 808. 72 781. 71 730. 26 753. 58 820. 71 721. 92 794. 18 648. 51 761. 38 758. 03 859 784. 47 885. 67 840. 99 895. 3 850. 5 784. 47 885. 67 840. 99 895. 3 850. 5 885. 38 935. 15 887. 57 900. 70 1050. 4 873. 86 952. 39 827. 96 956. 49 922. 16 903. 05 892. 15 73. 6518 73. 4389 73. 5663 73. 3004 73. 2946 73. 473 73. 4672 73. 4063 73. 2738 73. 4847 73. 2841 73. 3473 73. 38 73. 4947 73. 2884 73. 6468 73. 7971 73. 691 73. 7961 73. 8126 73. 8073 74. 1052 73. 9459 73. 9413 73. 8126 73. 8073 74. 1052 73. 9459 73. 9413 73. 9214 73. 6394 73. 7567 73. 7551 73. 5378 73. 8549 73. 8181 73. 9592 74. 2051 74. 0648 74. 4125 74. 6026 2010-11 2011-12 July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December 57. 31 963. 92 837. 71 923. 85 998. 64 969. 10 970. 54 986. 97 1102. 98 1001. 97 998. 42 1038. 91 1015. 58 1101. 79 855. 44 1039. 48 908. 79 1147. 22 74. 5447 74. 4778 74. 5078 75. 0673 75. 3246 75. 5892 75. 8669 76. 0948 76. 8504 77. 8919 78. 42 78. 843 79. 6805 79. 534 79. 7888 80. 9414 81. 9104 84. 1857 28 Source: Monthly Economic Trend-Bangladesh Bank , January 2012 Regression Analysis: Exchange Rate and Remittance SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations 0. 610778 0. 373049 0. 360993 2. 020275 54ANOVA df Regression Residual Total 1 52 53 SS 126. 2866232 212. 2385435 338. 5251666 Standard Error 1. 622261594 0. 001867047 Lower 95. 0% 62. 90219774 0. 006638903 Upper 95. 0% 69. 41280968 0. 014131912 MS 126. 2866 4. 08151 F 30. 94114904 Significance F 9. 36275E-07 Coefficients Intercept X Variable 1 66. 1575 0. 010385 t Stat 40. 78103 5. 562477 P-value 3. 7402E-41 9. 36275E-07 Lower 95% 62. 90219774 0. 006638903 Upper 95% 69. 41280968 0. 014131912 2 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) INFLOWS AND STOCKS BY COMPONENTS IN BANGLADESH (In million US$) Inflows Period 996-97 Jul-Dec Jan-Jun 1997-98 Jul-Dec Jan-Jun 1998-99 Jul-Dec Jan-Jun 1999-00 Jul-Dec Jan-Jun 2000-01 Jul-Dec Jan-Jun 2001-02 Jul-Dec Jan-Jun 2002-03 Jul-Dec Jan-Jun 2003-04 Jul-Dec Jan-Jun 2004-05 Jul-Dec Jan-Jun 2005-06 Jul-Dec Jan-Jun 2006-07 Jul-Dec Jan-Jun 2007-08 Jul-Dec Jan-Jun 2008-09 Jul-Dec Jan-Jun 2009-10 Jul-Dec Jan-Jun 2010-11 JulyDec. Jan-Jun Source : Stocks Total 366. 85 157. 63 209. 22 603. 30 366. 07 237. 23 394. 10 339. 23 54. 87 383. 22 254. 25 128. 97 563. 92 449. 67 114. 26 393. 76 240. 21 153. 56 379. 18 174. 75 204. 43 284. 16 145. 82 138. 34 803. 78 322. 06 481. 72 744. 61 363. 54 381. 07 792. 4 411. 41 381. 33 768. 69 285. 03 483. 66 960. 59 602. 65 357. 94 913. 02 342. 22 570. 80 Equity Capital 136. 71 40. 79 95. 92 349. 02 236. 14 112. 88 195. 54 167. 63 27. 91 152. 98 109. 56 43. 42 372. 27 306. 76 65. 51 230. 11 168. 27 61. 84 163. 98 71. 97 92. 01 111. 23 64. 13 47. 10 361. 14 108. 79 252. 35 447. 22 173. 24 273. 98 464. 50 229. 67 234. 83 545. 69 166. 78 378. 91 535. 42 430. 34 105. 08 515. 14 113. 47 401. 67 Reinvested Earning 151. 27 79. 92 71. 35 181. 31 92. 10 89. 21 120. 71 100. 67 20. 04 80. 71 56. 19 24. 52 81. 00 53. 25 27. 75 84. 66 37. 26 47. 40 164. 97 69. 42 95. 55 161. 38 74. 58 86. 80 297. 1 152. 99 144. 12 198. 64 103. 36 95. 28 281. 00 169. 46 111. 54 197. 71 101. 70 96. 01 336. 61 149. 72 186. 89 331. 10 178. 05 153. 05 Intracompany Loans 78. 87 36. 92 41. 95 72. 97 37. 83 35. 14 77. 85 70. 93 6. 92 149. 53 88. 50 61. 03 110. 66 89. 66 21. 00 79. 00 34. 68 44. 32 50. 23 33. 36 16. 87 11. 55 7. 11 4. 44 145. 53 60. 28 85. 25 98. 75 86. 94 11. 81 47. 24 12. 28 34. 96 25. 29 16. 55 8. 74 88. 56 22. 59 65. 97 66. 78 50. 7 0 16. 08 Equity Capital †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ 1010. 45 968. 83 1010. 45 1182. 07 1215. 54 1182. 07 1408. 98 1325. 97 1408. 98 1579. 15 1472. 70 1579. 15 1854. 10 1818. 86 1854. 10 2123. 50 1940. 7 2123. 50 2468. 63 2268. 39 2468. 63 2857. 96 2736. 50 2857. 96 3719. 99 3068. 07 3719. 99 3909. 60 3823. 32 3909. 60 5014. 96 4426. 69 5014. 96 Reinvested Earning †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ 505. 89 492. 80 505. 89 470. 44 470. 37 470. 44 505. 13 494. 15 505. 13 637. 75 550. 10 637. 75 708. 43 649. 08 708. 43 880. 01 822. 04 880. 01 974. 18 904. 81 974. 18 1146. 22 1133. 87 1146. 22 873. 76 1109. 59 873. 76 903. 65 742. 04 903. 65 544. 21 474. 06 544. 21 Intracompany Loans †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ 459. 04 428. 96 459. 04 454. 29 475. 85 454. 29 448. 82 382. 08 448. 82 410. 64 427. 89 410. 64 321. 16 408. 03 321. 16 362. 10 328. 7 362. 10 322. 72 363. 95 322. 72 364. 23 316. 86 364. 23 210. 68 221. 12 210. 68 325. 94 250. 66 325. 94 410. 29 378. 17 410. 29 Total †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ †¦ 1975. 38 1890. 59 1975. 38 2106. 80 2161. 76 2106. 80 2362. 93 2202. 20 2362. 93 2627. 54 2450. 69 2627. 54 2883. 69 2875. 97 2883. 69 3365. 61 3090. 68 3365. 61 3765. 53 3537. 15 3765. 53 4368. 41 4187. 23 4368. 41 4804. 43 4398. 78 4804. 43 5139. 19 4816. 02 5139. 19 5969. 46 5278. 92 5969. 46 118. 31 211. 57 12. 64 131. 64 233. 62 71. 26 Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank. 342. 52 436. 52 5196. 21 5143. 70 533. 65 612. 69 342. 21 462. 67 6072. 07 6219. 06 3